The Bank of Japan announced a massive ETF sell-off plan, which is expected to start as early as January next year. The plan involves assets totaling up to 83 trillion yen (approximately $534 billion), which sounds truly shocking. For crypto investors who focus on global capital flows, this is undoubtedly a signal worth paying attention to.

But here’s a detail that’s easy to overlook—this is not a "quick liquidation," but a super-long-term asset adjustment plan. According to the specific plan announced by the Bank of Japan in September, they intend to gradually reduce holdings at a rate of 330 billion yen on paper value per year. At this pace, it will take 112 years to complete all ETF sales.

Why drag it out so long? Clearly, the Bank of Japan has learned from historical lessons. In 2021, just adjusting the direction of ETF purchase indices caused the Nikkei index to fall by 6% for four consecutive trading days. The timing of this plan, launched amid a strong performance of the Japanese stock market this year, is aimed at minimizing market impact. They even referenced previous experience of smoothly exiting bank stock holdings over ten years.

From the perspective of the crypto market, the real risk isn’t how large the sell-off is, but how the market reacts to this long-term draining expectation. The liquidity characteristics of crypto assets make them particularly sensitive to large-scale capital outflows. This predictable and continuous pressure on funds might trigger chain reactions more easily than sudden large-scale sell-offs. Crypto traders need to closely monitor this trend and understand the potential impact of macro liquidity changes on digital asset valuations.