Data on the crypto prediction platform has recently been flashing warning signals. As of mid-December, the probability of the "Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December" has risen to 96%, while the market odds for the "interest rate remaining unchanged" option have dropped to just 3%.

This figure essentially indicates that the market has already "set the tone" for the BOJ's decision in advance. With only three days left until the official interest rate announcement on Friday, December 19, traders' attitudes are already very clear—an interest rate hike is almost certain.

The behind-the-scenes shift is quite interesting. The BOJ has long been a staunch supporter of ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining low interest rates. Now, the market dares to push the expectation of a rate hike close to full probability, which suggests that recent economic data have indeed sent strong signals. This is not just a matter of probability but also reflects a reassessment of Japan's economic fundamentals.

For traders, this 96% figure essentially serves as a risk warning. Whether the rate hike ultimately materializes or not, the market's pricing logic has already shifted toward "a rate hike happening." The most important focus now is not the surprise level of the decision itself but the reaction of the yen exchange rate and the Japanese stock index before and after the announcement. These market fluctuations often hide opportunities for short-term trading.

In the coming days, paying close attention to these key asset movements will be more meaningful than simply waiting for the decision to be announced.