#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 December 16 evening: Decomposing Trading Opportunities in a Multi-Cycle Market

Market Overview

On Tuesday evening, the crypto market exhibited a clear multi-cycle divergence pattern. Starting with the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating that the bearish trend still exists but momentum is waning. The MACD indicator has already turned downward, but there is a detail— the bearish momentum histogram has significantly decreased in size, suggesting that the downward energy is weakening and a short-term shift to consolidation or sideways movement is highly probable. The KDJ curve is also trending downward simultaneously, and no reversal signals have appeared yet, so traders should avoid rushing to buy the dip at this point.

In contrast, on the 1-hour cycle, the situation is completely different. The Bollinger Bands are still pointing downward, but the MACD has turned upward first—this is a crucial turning point. The bullish momentum histogram continues to expand, and the KDJ curve is also turning upward, indicating a clear short-term bullish signal. This short-term rebound indeed presents an opportunity.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

For BTC, the range of 87,300-87,800 is an ideal entry point for short positions, with the first target at 86,200. If it breaks below, then look towards 85,200. Set stop-loss above 88,200 to avoid being shaken out by false breakouts.

For smaller altcoins, decisively short at 2,970-3,000, initially targeting 2,920. If broken, continue downward to 2,890, with stop-loss set at 3,030. Risk management must be strictly controlled.

Core Logic

The current situation is a confrontation between "large-cycle bears and small-cycle rebounds." In the short term, follow the rebound rhythm of the 1-hour level, but medium- and long-term decisions should primarily be based on the 4-hour downtrend.

Don’t be greedy; strictly follow your take-profit and stop-loss plans. Trading opportunities often emerge within disciplined trading.