Is the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin still valid? From structural changes, is there still a possibility for BTC to reach new highs?

December 16, 2025, according to Gate market data, BTC (Bitcoin) is currently trading at $85,616, down 3.6% over the past 24 hours. The intraday high was $89,987, and the low dropped to $85,133. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $1.088 billion.

Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating within the $85,000 to $94,000 range, failing to continue the trend after reaching new highs previously.

Against this backdrop, the market is once again revisiting an old question: does the long-validated “Four-Year Cycle Theory” of Bitcoin still apply to the current market environment? If this cycle model begins to fail, how should investors reinterpret Bitcoin’s price logic?

The Origin and Historical Validity of the Four-Year Cycle Theory

The so-called Bitcoin four-year cycle primarily stems from its halving mechanism. Bitcoin block rewards are halved approximately every four years. The reduction in new coin supply has historically shown a strong temporal correlation with market peaks during bull runs. The highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred within 12 to 18 months after halving, forming one of the most important macro narratives in the market for a long time.

However, it’s important to note that the four-year cycle is never an “accurate prediction line,” but rather a framework of supply shocks interacting with market sentiment. In early stages, due to smaller market size and predominantly retail participants, supply changes had a more pronounced impact on prices.

Why Does This Cycle Feel “Delayed” This Time?

Compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin’s current trend shows significant structural changes. Even after the halving and with ETF-driven capital inflows, BTC prices continue to oscillate in high ranges without forming the kind of one-sided acceleration seen in the past.

This phenomenon does not mean the cycle has completely invalidated; rather, it suggests that Bitcoin’s market pricing mechanism is evolving. First, the emergence of ETFs has significantly increased market capacity. The entry of trillions of dollars of traditional funds has reduced Bitcoin’s sensitivity to new capital. The same scale of net inflow now results in less pronounced price increases than in earlier periods.

Second, the composition of market participants has changed. Institutional investors tend to focus on allocation, rebalancing, and risk management rather than chasing short-term emotional highs. This makes prices more prone to sideways consolidation at high levels rather than rapid surges.

Is There a Possibility of a New High for BTC in December 2025?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin maintaining oscillation above $85,000 is itself a relatively strong performance. The long-term moving averages remain upward, and the trend has not been broken. Whether it can challenge new highs again in December depends on several key variables stacking together.

First is the capital aspect. If spot ETFs can continue to see stable net inflows toward the end of the year, especially if supported during price pullbacks, this will provide the necessary liquidity for a breakout. Second is the macro environment. If market expectations for rate cuts strengthen further, the overall valuation of risk assets could shift upward, and Bitcoin, as a highly liquid risk asset, would directly benefit.

From a cycle perspective, the second year after halving often does not see a linear rise but rather prolonged consolidation at high levels. If the market chooses to digest this through time rather than price, the timing for a new high may be delayed.

If the Four-Year Cycle Theory Fails, How Should Bitcoin Be Valued?

An increasingly important consensus is that Bitcoin is shifting from a “halving-driven asset” to a “macro liquidity asset.” Under this framework, Bitcoin’s price is no longer solely determined by supply-side factors but behaves more like a globally sensitive liquidity asset.

In this context, assessing BTC’s market requires paying attention to several variables. The easing or tightening of global monetary policy will directly influence risk asset valuations. Changes in ETF and institutional holdings structure determine the marginal buying and selling forces in the market. On-chain activity and long-term holder behavior also impact supply and demand balance.

If the four-year cycle gradually weakens, Bitcoin is more likely to enter a state of “long-term oscillation + wide-range upward fluctuation,” rather than the steep parabolic moves of the past.

The Four-Year Cycle Is Not Disappearing, It Is Evolving

A more accurate understanding is that the four-year cycle has not become invalid but is being reshaped by new variables. Halving remains an important supply event, but its influence is being diluted by larger capital flows and more complex market structures.

Bitcoin’s price discovery mechanism is moving toward a more mature market, which means lower volatility, lengthened cycles, and a trend increasingly dependent on macro conditions. This may not be friendly to short-term traders, but for long-term holders, it reduces systemic risk.

Conclusion

Bitcoin in December 2025 is at a historic turning point. It retains the early narrative of scarcity typical of crypto assets while gradually evolving into a global liquidity asset. The four-year cycle is no longer the sole interpretive framework but remains an important background for understanding supply dynamics.

Whether Bitcoin will break new highs may no longer be the only standard for cycle success or failure. What truly matters is whether Bitcoin has completed its transition from a “speculative asset” to a “macro asset.” In this process, prices may move more slowly, but the path could be more stable.