2025-12-16 13:12:10

#加密生态动态追踪 Friday, the Bank of Japan is about to announce its interest rate decision. The market now has little doubt—raising rates by 25 basis points, increasing the rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. According to Polymarket data, this probability is as high as 97%. It may sound like nothing major, but the underlying impact could be much more complex than you think.

This will be the highest interest rate level in Japan in 30 years. Historically, investors have relied on "free yen" arbitrage in global markets, but this era is coming to an end. Stocks and crypto assets will come under pressure, the yen will appreciate, and Japanese government bond yields will rise—this is a market reshaping.

What are macro analysts warning about? BTC might still fall further, potentially breaking $70,000. This is not unfounded. Looking at the data for 2024: in March, the Bank of Japan raised rates, and BTC dropped about 23%; in July, another rate hike, and BTC fell about 26%; by January this year, BTC had fallen about 31%. The historical pattern is clear: if the Bank of Japan actually raises rates as expected next week, Bitcoin is likely to face another round of selling pressure.

But there is a bigger issue—this December's rate hike might just be the beginning.

Several insiders have revealed that Japanese decision-makers believe that 0.75% is still far from the neutral interest rate. Some officials even think 1% is not enough. According to the latest estimates from the Bank of Japan, the nominal neutral interest rate range is approximately between 1% and 2.5%. In other words, this could be the prelude to a new rate hike cycle, not the end.

The market has already priced in the December rate hike, and the pressure on the crypto market since December mainly stems from this expectation. But what truly tests investors' psychology is the upcoming potential rate hike cycle. Moving gradually from 0.75% to 1% or even higher, risk assets will continue to come under pressure—including BTC and the entire crypto market.

In the short term, this week will definitely be tough. In the medium term, investors need to be prepared, as this could be a long adjustment period. Crypto investors should now seriously assess their risk tolerance.

BTC1.06%

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DataBartender

· 12-19 12:25

It's another move by the Bank of Japan. BTC might have to eat dirt this week. --- Wait, the historical pattern is so obvious, why are some people still not fleeing in advance? --- 0.75% is just the beginning? How long do I have to carry this burden? --- The era of free Japanese Yen is over. This wave of investors is going to bleed heavily. --- The 30-year high interest rate sounds impressive, but whether BTC will break 70,000 directly is hard to say. --- I just want to know, where is the market bottom when it reaches 1%? --- Haha, another round of psychological testing. Let’s see who can hold on this time. --- The beginning of the rate hike cycle? Oh my, how long will we have to endure this? --- Risk tolerance has been squeezed to the limit now. --- Honestly, Bitcoin has been a ticking time bomb lately.

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NeonCollector

· 12-16 13:42

Here it comes again, history always repeats itself. Japan's approach this time is exactly the same as before. The crypto circle deserves a beating. It's really not surprising that BTC dropped below 70,000. Looking at historical data is just annoying; it's always accurate. This time might really just be the beginning. Let's see how they play with 1% or even higher. I need to quickly adjust my positions. For those still leveraging now, let's just wait and see. Whether we can keep a calm mindset is the key. There's no good short-term solution. We'll just see what Japan says on Friday. Anyway, I'm prepared for a long-term beating.

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 12-16 13:34

Japan's recent interest rate hike really slapped the crypto market in the face; historical patterns are right here. --- Going down again? Forget it, I'll cut losses first. Anyway, as long as this isn't the end point, it won't be too painful. --- 0.75% is just the beginning; they might keep raising it. What should I do with my position? --- The era of free arbitrage is really over. No wonder crypto has been so miserable this week. --- Whether $70,000 breaks or not depends on Friday, but the chances seem pretty high. --- Mid-term adjustment? That's what I'm most worried about. Short-term drops are acceptable, but who can withstand long-term suppression? --- The highest interest rate in 30 years; just mentioning this background is pretty scary. --- Historical data is deadly: a 23% drop in March, 26% in July, 31% in January. This time, it's probably going to follow the same rhythm. --- Nominal neutral interest rate reaching 2.5%? Then I’d better avoid risks first.

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fomo_fighter

· 12-16 13:31

Another round of liquidation time, breaking 70,000 is truly exciting. --- Does the Bank of Japan really dare to go over 1%+? When that happens, arbitrage positions will explode even more. --- The 30-year high interest rate feels more intense than expected. --- Looking at the historical data, BTC might be in for a tough week. --- Is the era of free Japanese Yen really coming to an end? Feeling a bit reluctant. --- Neutral interest rates are between 1% and 2.5%. Oh my, the rate hike cycle has just begun. --- If this drop falls below 70,000, is it a bottoming out or stop-loss? Hard to choose. --- With successive rate hikes, risk assets really have no way out, all getting hammered. --- Things with a 97% probability now dare not be bet against. --- A long adjustment period... sounds uncomfortable, the wallet is going to shrink.

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BlockDetective

· 12-16 13:12

Wait a minute, after breaking 70,000, how much further can it go? It feels like the Bank of Japan is really about to make a move this time. The era of free yen is gone in an instant.

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