The latest US non-farm payroll data has sparked heated discussions in the market, with the numbers hinting at two very different outlooks.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 4.6%, far exceeding market expectations. At the same time, new jobs added also fell short of targets. This set of data clearly signals a cooling in the labor market—pressures on the economic fundamentals are beginning to emerge.

However, an interesting contrast appears here. From a liquidity perspective, weak employment actually reinforces market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in January next year. This expectation itself provides some support for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Looking at the current situation from another angle: the economic fundamentals are relatively weak, but the monetary policy environment is becoming more accommodative. These two forces are creating a tug-of-war—concerns about economic downturns on one side, and the potential for liquidity release on the other. This "bittersweet" structure makes it difficult to see a clear one-sided trend in the short term.

The key will be whether the unemployment rate continues to rise. Once the trend in unemployment data is confirmed, the market may make more aggressive adjustments to monetary policy expectations.