There's growing consensus among economists that artificial intelligence could push productivity growth to somewhere between 2.5% and 3% annually. Here's why that number matters more than you might think.

When productivity gains accelerate, it changes everything—from corporate earnings expectations to inflation dynamics to central bank policy decisions. AI isn't just hype anymore; it's reshaping how efficiently companies operate and how much value each worker can generate.

For crypto and macro investors, this productivity narrative has real implications. Higher productivity growth could potentially ease inflation pressures without requiring sustained high interest rates. That shifts the entire macro backdrop. It could mean sustained corporate profitability even in more competitive conditions, or it could mean stagflation gets beaten back faster than expected.

The 2.5%-3% range isn't trivial either. Compare that to the 1.5%-2% trend productivity growth we've seen in recent years, and you're looking at meaningful upside. Early-stage AI adoption is still concentrated in certain sectors, so as it spreads, these estimates could prove conservative—or too optimistic, depending on execution challenges.

Keep this productivity story in your back pocket when analyzing macro trends. It's becoming the throughline for understanding where markets and economies might head next.