2025-12-16 18:20:18

U.S. November employment data just released, and the market is once again caught in a new round of speculation.

The official figures look pretty good—adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. But a closer look reveals some issues: the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, the highest in four years; wage growth slowed to 3.5%, showing clear signs of weakening. More importantly, October non-farm payrolls were significantly revised downward, dropping by 105,000, the largest decline in five years. Retail sales stagnated, and signals of economic slowdown are becoming more evident.

Traders reacted quickly. The US dollar index fell below 98, gold broke through the $4310 mark, and other non-USD currencies strengthened accordingly. The interest rate futures market immediately signaled a "cut" button, pushing the probability of a rate cut in January to 31%.

However, there is still a lot of noise. Statistical omissions due to the government shutdown, Federal Reserve officials publicly advising not to overinterpret the data… all these remind the market that things are far from simple. Meanwhile, big players have already started quietly positioning, ETF funds are beginning to flow back, and the crypto market is searching for direction amid this chaos.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH, SUI, DOGE, and others are fluctuating accordingly. With wage growth slowing and hiring pace easing, the Federal Reserve is currently caught in a dilemma: continue rate cuts to rescue the market, or stay on the sidelines? This suspense is expected to continue fermenting in the short term.

ETH0,83%

SUI-1,58%

DOGE-1,74%

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LayerZeroHero

· 2025-12-19 15:56

The expectation of interest rate cuts is coming out, and this wave of retail investors is about to be cut again. Once again, big data masks the truth; soaring unemployment rates are the real game-changer. The Federal Reserve is playing a game; we're just watching the show, and the crypto circle is dancing along. Wages are falling, hiring has stopped, and the signs of economic slowdown are so obvious—what are we pretending for? The government shutdown as an excuse—it's always useful whenever needed. Gold has broken through 4310, and the market is truly panicking. Major players are positioning, while retail investors are still guessing; the gap in the pattern is too big. A 31% probability of rate cuts—are traders really believing it or just gambling?

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OnchainDetective

· 2025-12-17 06:37

Wait, I need to carefully examine the logic behind this set of data... On the surface, 64,000 was above expectations, but in October it was actually revised down by 105,000? That doesn't add up at all; it's obvious there's a problem here. According to on-chain data, the capital flows of large investors have long revealed their true intentions. The timing of ETF inflows is too suspicious. After analysis and judgment, this is definitely not a coincidence. Is it another government shutdown scapegoat? Federal Reserve officials are rushing to deny it, saying not to over-interpret... I suspected this a long time ago; there’s some hidden information in the core data. Unemployment rate at a four-year high with stagnant wages—this signal is more obvious than ever... The Federal Reserve is caught in the middle, stuck between a rock and a hard place. I bet the probability of a rate cut in January is more than 31%. The market pricing is still too naive. Let's wait and see who can catch the bottom in this chaos...

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BitcoinDaddy

· 2025-12-16 18:50

The rate cut expectation is at its peak, but with such terrible data, who dares to really go all in?

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FunGibleTom

· 2025-12-16 18:49

The expectation of interest rate cuts is back... Considering how harshly October's data was revised, it feels like the numbers can't really be trusted.

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Rugman_Walking

· 2025-12-16 18:49

The data keeps getting worse, and the unemployment rate is skyrocketing... Powell must be freaking out.

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WagmiAnon

· 2025-12-16 18:36

The data looks good but the details are heartbreaking. I've seen this trick too many times. Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising again, but do you believe that when the cut actually happens, the market will crash again? What are the whales planning? We retail investors are always left in the dust. With such a high unemployment rate, and still saying "no problem," that sounds just ridiculous. Let's wait and see how January unfolds. The Federal Reserve's move is hard to predict.

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