By the end of 2025, Bitcoin drops to $85,866, and the market is filled with bearish voices. However, Grayscale's latest perspective provides a strong response: this is not a bear market at all, but a new form of a bull market.

So the key question arises—has the traditional cycle of halving→rising→crash really become invalid?

It certainly seems so. The old pattern of surges driven by halving cycles has been completely rewritten by spot ETFs. Continuous buying by institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity has become the market's "shock absorber." The data speaks for itself: the US Bitcoin ETF assets have surpassed $191 billion, shifting market driving forces from retail FOMO to institutional asset allocation needs. This shift is significant—once institutions enter, their logic is to buy and hold long-term, rather than chase short-term gains and sell off.

Another factor not to be overlooked is the changing regulatory environment. The Republican-led government brings a relatively friendly attitude: advancing stablecoin legislation, cooling SEC enforcement actions, and the potential passage of structural crypto legislation by 2026. For institutional investors, regulatory certainty is often more important than short-term price movements—this directly impacts their risk assessment and investment decisions.

Against the macro backdrop of dollar depreciation and heavy debt burdens, Bitcoin is being repositioned by institutions as a "sovereign credit hedge." But this also means that the market won't rise in a straight line as before. ETF capital flows are becoming more neutral, and the rate cut space is limited, so volatility will still be considerable.

The core logic is: Bitcoin has broken free from the fate of "halving every four years leading to a surge," and now relies on continuous institutional capital inflows. The only thing to watch next is—will it truly hit new highs in the first half of 2026? The answer to this will determine the rhythm of the entire market moving forward.