#大户持仓动态 Employment data shows a stark contrast! Gold prices remain steady at 4300, how far are we from 5000?

The US employment report presents a double-edged sword: November non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 64,000, but October was revised down to -105,000, with the unemployment rate soaring to 4.6%, reaching a new high since 2021, and wage growth falling to a four-year low. This apparent resilience coupled with underlying weakness has directly driven up precious metal prices, with gold firmly anchored at the 4300 dollar level.

The seemingly distant 5000 dollars is now being seriously discussed by the market.

Several key catalysts remain unchanged: senior central bank officials all acknowledge a "systematic overestimation" issue with non-farm data, and the actual employment environment may still be shrinking by about 20,000 jobs per month, forcing the continuation of easing policies. Three consecutive rate cuts have already been implemented, and institutions generally bet that there will be at least two more rate cuts by 2026, with the US dollar index already falling below 98. This provides natural support for precious metals. Meanwhile, the global central banks' continued accumulation shows no signs of slowing, with many leading investment banks openly stating that 5000 dollars is a reasonable target.

In the short term, there may be fluctuations around 4350 dollars, but with ongoing employment weakness, rising easing expectations, and frequent geopolitical risks, these three forces converge, and the long-term logic is already in place. 4300 is not the end, but a stepping stone toward 5000. This round of market rally has just begun to accelerate.