If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, will the market really fall? Many people think it's no big deal, as the magnitude is limited. But the real issue isn't "how much" they raise, it's that—Japan is finally moving.

For over the past twenty years, Japan has been the place with the lowest global financing costs. Investors have borrowed大量 yen, then invested in US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and various high-risk assets. Frankly, many of the market rallies in recent years have been supported by Japan's low interest rates.

What happens if they raise rates? The first to suffer won't be Japan's domestic economy, but those leveraging their funds. As long as there is an expectation of yen appreciation, carry trades will be forced to unwind—selling stocks, selling coins, and risk control. This isn't just emotional volatility; it's forced exit.

Why might it not be a small adjustment? Currently, the market position isn't low, and leverage is quite high. When everyone "defaults to the idea that money is always cheap," a change in rules often triggers a fierce reaction. Historically, big crashes are often not because interest rates are high per se, but because funds collectively realize they've taken the wrong direction.

Impact on the crypto world? Short-term volatility will be amplified. The larger the leverage, the more dangerous. Altcoins will crash first, followed by mainstream coins like Ethereum, which may experience a sudden acceleration of decline after a period of consolidation—usually not because the project itself has issues, but because funds are fleeing.

A rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not immediately trigger a global crisis, but it could be one of the triggers for risk release.

Rather than betting on a gentle market, it's more realistic to adjust your positions and allocations in advance.