The golden bull market hides a turning point: by 2026, gold prices could rise by up to 30%, but could also plummet by 20%.

In 2025, gold experienced an epic rally, with an annual increase of over 60%, setting more than 50 new historical highs. This strong performance made it one of the most outstanding asset classes globally for the year.

As gold prices soared to unprecedented levels, market focus has shifted to 2026: Will this bull market continue to surge, or is a major turning point imminent?

The World Gold Council (WGC) in its recent 2026 Outlook report did not provide a single answer but revealed four distinctly different scenarios, with the most pessimistic indicating that gold prices could fall back 5% to 20% from their high levels. This serves as a reminder to investors that the gold market, amid a complex and volatile macro environment, stands at a crossroads filled with uncertainty.

01 Behind the Gold Feast: Reviewing the Epic 2025 Market Rally

The gold market in 2025 was truly “historic.” According to WGC data, gold prices surged over 60% throughout the year, hitting more than 50 new record highs.

This robust rally was driven by multiple forces acting together in an unprecedented manner. From the demand side, global gold demand in the first three quarters reached a historic peak of 3,640 tons, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year.

Among them, investment demand in China became a key driver, while strategic gold purchases by central banks worldwide provided solid structural support for gold prices.

The forces behind this rally were unusually balanced. According to WGC’s gold return attribution model, high-risk environments contributed about 12 percentage points to returns, while a weaker dollar and declining interest rates contributed approximately 10 percentage points.

The momentum effect from rising prices also played a significant role, attracting a large number of trend investors into the market.

02 Crossroads: Four Scenarios for Gold’s Future

The World Gold Council did not offer a single gold price forecast but outlined four possible scenarios for 2026 based on different macroeconomic paths. It’s more like a roadmap for navigating uncertainty.

The first is “Consensus Scenario”: If global economic growth remains stable and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by about 75 basis points as expected, gold prices are likely to fluctuate within a 5% range around the current high, showing a consolidation pattern.

The second is “Mild Recession”: If the U.S. economy weakens and stock market volatility increases, the Fed may be forced to adopt more aggressive rate cuts. In this scenario, gold could rise by 5% to 15%.

The third is “Vicious Cycle”: If the global economy stalls deeply due to trade tensions or geopolitical conflicts, combined with risk aversion and extremely loose monetary policies, gold prices could soar by 15% to 30%, representing the most optimistic outlook.

The fourth is “Reinflation Return”: This is also the most cautionary scenario in the report. If stimulus policies push the economy to grow beyond expectations and inflationary pressures resurface, the Fed might pause rate cuts or even restart rate hikes.

This would push up real interest rates and the dollar, sharply increasing the cost of holding gold. In this scenario, gold prices could face a correction of 5% to 20%.

03 Market Concerns: The Two Major Pillars Supporting Gold Prices Are Uncertain

Whether the gold market can maintain its strength in 2026 largely depends on two key variables: central bank gold purchases and private sector gold recycling supply.

In recent years, sustained gold buying by central banks, especially in emerging markets, has been the most solid “buying force” supporting gold prices. However, when prices are already at historic highs, whether the pace and resolve of central bank purchases will change has become a market concern.

On the other hand, an abnormal phenomenon appeared in 2025: despite high gold prices, the amount of gold recycled and re-entered into the market was lower than expected.

A significant reason is that in regions like India, large quantities of gold jewelry are used as collateral for loans rather than being sold directly. This effectively “locks” hundreds of tons of gold within the financial system, not contributing to market supply.

This hidden risk is that if economic conditions change and loan defaults increase, these pledged gold assets could be sold off en masse, causing a sudden surge in market supply and impacting gold prices.

04 Diverging Wall Street Views: Institutional Perspectives on Gold’s Future

There are significant differences among global financial institutions regarding the future of gold.

Unlike WGC’s cautious scenario analysis, several Wall Street giants remain bullish on gold. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2026, gold could rise to $5,055 per ounce.

Bank of America has set a target of $5,000, believing that moderate growth in investment demand could easily push gold prices to that level.

CitiGroup, however, expressed a more cautious view mid-2025, expecting gold to gradually cool after reaching new highs, potentially falling below $3,000 per ounce.

A technical strategist at Bank of America also warned that current gold prices are about 20% above the 200-day moving average, and historically, mid-term peaks in gold bull markets tend to occur when premiums reach around 25%, indicating increasing risk of a correction.

05 Seizing Gold Opportunities on Gate: Trading Strategies and Risk Tips

In the face of the highly uncertain gold market in 2026, investors can respond flexibly to different scenarios through related trading products on the Gate platform, such as spot gold, futures contracts, or gold-linked cryptocurrencies.

Note: PAXG (Pax Gold) is a crypto asset backed by physical gold, with each PAXG representing ownership of 1 ounce of London Good Delivery gold bars.

Currently, the gold market is at a critical observation window. Juan Carlos Artigas, CEO of WGC Americas, emphasizes that investors should not rely on a single forecast but conduct “scenario analysis” and dynamically adjust their positions.

This mindset is especially important for investors engaging in gold-related trading on digital asset platforms like Gate.

Future Outlook

After reaching new all-time highs, market sentiment for gold is shifting from unanimous optimism to cautious divergence. Citi analyst Max Layton pointed out mid-2025 that gold could gradually cool after hitting new highs.

Meanwhile, the structure of global central bank gold reserves is also undergoing profound changes. Currently, gold accounts for about 25% of official foreign exchange reserves worldwide, with developed countries around 30%, and emerging markets about 15%.

As emerging markets continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, this proportion is expected to rise further, providing long-term structural demand for gold.

The WGC report concludes that the gold market in 2026 will continue to feature high volatility and high opportunity. For investors, this means both risks and opportunities are present.