2025-12-17 11:10:48

#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The Bank of Japan is set to make a decision this Friday. Last year's sudden rate hike caused the crypto market to plummet by half—remember that? But this year's scenario is different. In the prediction market, the probability of a rate hike has long been stable at over 90%, so everyone is confident that there won't be a sudden, unprepared crash like last year.

That said, don't be overly optimistic. The global liquidity leader is gradually tightening, regardless of how the Bank of Japan's final decision turns out. Crypto funding conditions should remain cautious. The real uncertainty is actually hidden "after the dust settles"—whether the bad news has been digested or if a new tightening wave is just beginning. We'll see the true story this Friday. If you have a trading screen, it's not a bad idea to keep a close eye.

BTC-0,56%

ETH-1,07%

BNB1,14%

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ParanoiaKing

· 2025-12-19 22:12

There's a 90% chance it's already been digested long ago; I'm actually worried that after landing, there won't be any new stories to tell.

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MevTears

· 2025-12-18 11:31

What are you afraid of this time? 90% of it has already been digested, and what should have fallen has already fallen.

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

· 2025-12-17 11:39

Last year's flash crash still haunts me; this time, there's a 90% probability that it's basically set, so I'm not afraid anymore. That said, the real point will be after the dust settles. I feel next Friday will be the true watershed moment. We need to keep a close eye on liquidity tightening and not get fooled by a rebound. If this wave can still go up, it would be ridiculous. I've already cut my position in half anyway.

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MeaninglessGwei

· 2025-12-17 11:35

There's a 90% chance that everything is already in place, and this time it's unlikely to explode like last year. But the real test is still ahead; the crucial moment will come after the dust settles.

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GateUser-c802f0e8

· 2025-12-17 11:29

Last year's flash crash is still vivid in my memory. At least this year there's some psychological expectation, but still hard to say for sure. --- The real highlight is when the shoe drops; a 90% probability actually makes people a bit uneasy. --- Gradually tightening liquidity is the real killer; don't be fooled by surface-level news. --- See the truth on Friday; I've already wiped the screen clean haha. --- The news was already priced in; what I'm more worried about is the next step after it lands. --- By the way, could this wave be another reverse operation? Anyway, the central bank always manages to surprise. --- Digesting bad news doesn't equal market initiation; I don't quite buy this logic.

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MemeKingNFT

· 2025-12-17 11:15

Last year's wave really caught me off guard; it just crashed down. This time, there's a 90% chance it was already digested, but... tightening liquidity is the real killer, gotta keep your eyes wide open. It's only after the shoe drops that the real show begins; anything said before is just talk. Honestly, I'm a bit scared, feeling like we're about to start building a bottom again. The signals from the prediction market are too clear, which makes me less confident; last year, it flipped over like this. This Friday, I definitely need to stay glued to the screen, or else missing the rebound will be painful. The real uncertainty lies ahead; saying it's stable now is just self-brainwashing. When liquidity leaders tighten, the entire market sentiment changes; this time it's different from before. Don't be fooled by the 90% probability; the market's favorite move is exactly this. Once the good news is digested, a new wave of tightening will follow, feeling a bit exhausting... Before the shoe even drops, everyone starts getting excited—this move feels so familiar.

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