As of December 17, 2025, the crypto market is experiencing short-term weakness (1-3 months), medium-term rebound (3-12 months), and long-term institutional slow bull market (1-3 years). The core drivers are macro liquidity, regulatory compliance, capital flows, and technical factors.

1. Short-term (1-3 months): Consolidation with bearish bias

- Core judgment: Year-end liquidity tightening + hawkish Federal Reserve expectations + ETF outflows, maintaining a weak consolidation, mainly driven by oversold rebounds and selling pressure.
- Key levels (BTC): Support at $81,000-$85,000, resistance at $90,000-$94,000, losing $81,000 may lead to a dip towards $75,000-$80,000.
- Trigger points: Federal Reserve January meeting, year-end rebalancing, ETF capital flows, and panic index rebound.
- Trading advice: Light positions, focus on short-term rebounds to reduce holdings, wait for stabilization signals after panic clears.

2. Medium-term (3-12 months, first half of 2026): Rebound with structural opportunities

- Core judgment: Macro rate cut expectations warming + regulatory compliance advancement + institutional capital returning, the market gradually stabilizes and rises, with a sideways upward trend; mainstream coins outperform small-cap coins.
- Price range (BTC): Baseline $110,000-$140,000; optimistic $150,000-$180,000 (breaking previous high); pessimistic $70,000-$100,000 (macro recession).
- Main drivers: ① Clarification of regulation (US legislation, EU MiCA implementation); ② Production of the 20 millionth Bitcoin, increasing scarcity; ③ RWA tokenization, AI + blockchain applications; ④ Rebalancing of institutional assets bringing incremental capital.
- Risks: Rate cuts below expectations, regulatory delays, risks of small-cap coins crashing.

3. Long-term (1-3 years): Institutional slow bull market, value revaluation

- Core judgment: Industry shifting from speculation to practical value and institutional dominance, weakening of the “four-year cycle,” forming a slow bull pattern; compliance and ecological projects are favored.
- Price outlook (BTC): Reaching $200,000+ in 2027-2028, mainly dependent on macro liquidity and increased institutional allocation.
- Key trends: ① Expansion of compliant products like spot ETFs and RWA; ② Deepening of public chain ecosystems (Ethereum layer 2, Solana) and stablecoin payment scenarios; ③ Mining companies transitioning to HPC/AI, optimizing computing power landscape.

4. Key influencing factors and scenario matrix

Scenario Core assumptions BTC price range
Optimistic Soft landing + rate cuts implemented + large institutional inflows $150,000-$180,000 (first half of 2026)
Baseline Growth slowdown + steady regulatory progress $110,000-$140,000 (first half of 2026)
Pessimistic Global recession + stricter regulation $70,000-$100,000 (first half of 2026)