#数字资产市场洞察 Why is gold heading north all the way? The truth behind a 50%+ increase by 2025

The performance of gold over the past six months has been, to be honest, a bit crazy. From the beginning of the year until now, the increase has already surpassed 50%. Many people are asking: how did this happen? Actually, there’s no mysterious force behind it; it’s driven by four simultaneous waves.

First, let’s talk about the actions of the Federal Reserve. September marked the first cut in interest rates, followed by a second and third cut, totaling three cuts this year. There’s also an expectation of another 100 basis points cut in 2026. What does rate cutting mean? Simply put, money becomes cheaper, the cost of holding gold decreases, and the dollar also depreciates. The logic is very clear: rate cuts → dollar weakness → increased attractiveness of gold. When US Treasury yields fall, gold, which was previously less favored, suddenly becomes attractive.

Next, look at the movements of global central banks—it's basically a gold-buying frenzy. In the third quarter of 2025, central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold. In October alone, they bought 53 tons, a 36% month-on-month increase. Our own central bank’s actions are the most stable—buying continuously for 11 months, with reserves reaching 2,303 tons by September. Why so active? Simply put, under the big trend of "de-dollarization," central banks are building hedging defenses, and gold is the hardest anchor. Emerging markets’ dependence on the dollar is loosening, and gold has become the most convincing alternative.

Geopolitical tensions also haven’t eased. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the Israel-Palestine situation has been fluctuating over the past two years, with the Middle East more volatile than ever. The US debt is also exploding, and its sovereign credit rating has been downgraded. During such times, risk aversion sentiment is soaring. There’s an old saying: "Buy gold in troubled times," and now it’s all validated—funds are seeking assets that can be hidden and preserved, and gold has become the last refuge.

Investor enthusiasm hasn’t cooled either. Gold ETFs saw record inflows in the third quarter, with investment demand reaching 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase. Actual gold demand (especially in Asia) has been consistently strong, and supply shortages are becoming more apparent. This is no longer just a retail game; institutions and high-net-worth individuals have long upgraded gold from a "hedge to be remembered in times of trouble" to an "essential part of asset allocation."

Putting these four forces together, gold’s rise is hardly a surprise. The global monetary system is being reshuffled, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and investment concepts are evolving. In an environment where central banks keep buying and the Fed continues to loosen, the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold has already taken shape. If there’s a short-term dip, it’s actually an opportunity to get in.