#美联储降息 Recognize the Market "Fuse" Coming Up (Part One)

—— Volatility Could Be Just Around the Corner

The core logic in the current crypto market still revolves around technical analysis and capital flows, but there are two external variables that, once triggered, could directly rewrite short-term trends. The sooner you realize this, the better.

📌 Key Point 1: US November CPI Release — Market Confidence or a Mirror of the Devil

On the evening of December 18, Beijing time, the US November inflation data will be released. How significant is this data? It can be said that in the near term, no economic indicator will have a greater impact on risk assets than this.

The reason is straightforward — it determines the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Breaking it down, the chain looks like this:

Inflation data declines → Market expects interest rates to peak → Risk assets get a breather

Conversely, inflation rebounds → Tightening expectations re-emerge → Cryptocurrencies and other risk assets continue to be under pressure

For the entire crypto space, this is a simple dichotomy: whether to breathe a sigh of relief or continue to be hammered depends entirely on how this data turns out.

⚠️ It’s important to pay special attention to the short-term volatility before and after the data release, which can often be intense and may produce false breakouts. Don’t overreact.

🏦 Key Point 2: Bank of Japan Policy Shift — The Invisible Hand Behind Global Liquidity

Around December 19, Beijing time, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will also be announced. The market generally expects a possible rate hike this time.

Why should we also pay attention to this event? On the surface, it’s Japan’s monetary policy, but in reality, its influence extends far beyond Japan.

If the BOJ indeed starts raising interest rates, it means the attractiveness of the yen will increase. Arbitrage trades relying on low-yen interest rates (buying low-interest currencies to invest in high-yield assets) may begin to reverse. This will lead to a reallocation of global capital flows, and cryptocurrencies, as one of the risk assets, will find it hard to avoid the impact.

Simply put: if Japan’s "unlimited easing" really comes to an end, the global risk asset pricing system will need to be recalculated. This impact might not immediately show in the market, but it must be factored into investment decisions in advance.