#数字资产市场洞察 The "dumb method" of crypto trading, why is it more profitable than complex theories?

After years in the crypto world, I’ve gradually realized a seemingly simple yet highly effective trading framework. It’s not about sophisticated derivative strategies, but rather the basic logic that beginners often overlook.

**Signal Recognition During Market Downturns**

When the entire market is plunging, but a certain coin you hold isn’t dropping as sharply, what does that usually indicate? It’s not luck, but the presence of strong funds quietly accumulating. At this point, give yourself a bit more patience; you often can wait for a decent rebound. The performance difference between $BTC and most altcoins at this stage is quite obvious.

**Entry and Exit, Simplicity Over Cleverness**

Don’t get dazzled by complicated charts. For short-term trades, focus on the 5-day moving average—hold when above, exit when it breaks. For medium-term, use the 20-day moving average as support. Many people fail to execute complex systems; it’s better to stick with simple rules you can truly follow. Execution is the core of this game.

**Volume Contraction During Uptrends Is a Healthy Signal**

When the main upward wave begins, if the price rises significantly but volume doesn’t surge, it usually indicates health—no risk of a sudden dump. But if volume contracts and the trendline holds during a pullback, you can continue holding; if volume increases and breaks down, be alert.

**The Reality of Time Cost**

No movement after three days in the position? Floating loss exceeds 5%? Exit decisively. Consider both time and space dimensions; don’t let a losing position tie up your funds indefinitely.

**Overbought Opportunities in Emotional Sentiment**

A coin from its all-time high gets cut in half and continues to decline for days; market sentiment is thoroughly pessimistic. In such conditions, a rebound is often brewing. $ETH This is especially true for top-tier coins.

**Follow the Leaders Only**

When prices rise, the leading coins are the most aggressive; when they fall, they are the most resilient. Don’t be scared by large price figures, nor dream of bottom-fishing during corrections. Leaders are leaders for a reason.

**Never Catch a Falling Knife**

Abandon weak coins. Follow the established trend; it’s better to miss ten opportunities than to make one mistake. Discipline is key.

**Calmness After Profits Is More Important**

A single profit might be luck; consistent profitability is true skill. Regularly review your trading records and gradually develop your own system—this is much more reliable than relying on luck.

**The Value of Holding Cash**

When there are no clear opportunities, waiting itself is a strategy. Many can’t handle the anxiety of idleness and force trades. In fact, preserving capital is always more important than forcing participation.

**Final Reflection**

The market ultimately rewards those who follow discipline and can repeatedly succeed with proven methods, not those who have the most information or the most elaborate theories. These approaches may seem simple, but they outperform complex theories that sound high-end but are hard to implement in practice.