December 19th, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike, which is no longer news; the market has already digested it. What truly deserves attention is not whether there will be a rate hike or not, but how this hike will impact market expectations.

Looking at previous rate hike cycles in history, Bitcoin's performance can tell the story:

In March 2024, BTC shrank by 24%. By July, the decline expanded to 30%. The wave in January this year was even more severe — a 32% retracement. One could be coincidental; two might be a coincidence, but three times essentially form a pattern. So the question arises: will history repeat itself in December 2025?

The most dangerous part of the market now isn't the policy itself but people's mindset. Too many traders are betting on a hypothesis — that the negative news has been fully priced in, and a rebound is imminent. As a result, a large amount of capital is going all-in, trying to catch the bottom. But honestly, going all-in isn't really an investment strategy; it's essentially gambling mentality at play. Putting all chips on the table before understanding the next move is no different from gambling at a casino table.

Being cautious is still the best approach.