Just look at the recent ETH trend. As soon as the expectation of a rate hike in Japan emerged, bears thought the negative news would cause a sell-off, but instead, they were violently beaten by the bulls. When breaking through $3000, everyone believed in the wave of "bad news is good news," and rushed to go long. Then Wall Street turned around, and the bulls were also crushed. Both longs and shorts exploded, leaving market participants confused.

This套路 is actually quite old. Historically, there have always been such cycles—when the world reaches a certain extreme, it will swing back to the other extreme. Then it repeats. The real difference lies in the depth of understanding of these cycles between institutions and individuals. Wall Street folks have been playing this system for decades; after experiencing a few losses, they get the rhythm down.

In the end, what defeats you is not technical analysis or indicators, but the understanding of market cycles—this, frankly, is cultural accumulation. Those who can see through it naturally do; those who can't will have to keep paying tuition.