#比特币价格分析 Years of trading experience in cryptocurrencies have made me highly cautious about market predictions. Recently, I saw on Polymarket a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 again this year with a probability of 50%, which reminded me of the experiences of being misled by various "experts" in the past. Such predictions are often a means for market manipulators to sway sentiment, and their authenticity is questionable. We must learn to think independently, analyze fundamentals and technicals, rather than blindly follow the crowd. Remember, the market will never make most people money. Staying rational, managing risks, and maintaining discipline are key to long-term survival in this industry. For beginners, don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations, and don't easily believe in so-called "insider information." Steady progress, proper asset allocation, and risk management are the right way forward.