2025-12-18 02:11:08

#数字资产市场洞察 The RMB exchange rate trend in 2026 is worth paying attention to, as it may reach the critical level of 6.5 by the end of the year.

From the perspective of the global trade pattern, Europe has recently raised many concerns about trade imbalance with China. In 2026, we will definitely need to expand import scale—simply put, making it profitable for international participants so that this game can continue. Increased imports and slowed exports will gradually be reflected in the data. An interesting phenomenon is that our trade surplus may really be peaking. The annual surplus at the trillion-yuan level seems to be becoming a thing of the past. Over the next five, ten years or even longer, this number will only continue to narrow. And the appreciation of the domestic currency is just right to be negative for exporters and positive for importers, which aligns perfectly with the country's macroeconomic regulation approach.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, the interest rate cut dot plot for next year is already in place. The probability of a single rate cut is moderate, and the expectation of two cuts is currently 7.3%. As for Trump’s statement about cutting directly to 1%? Well, that’s part of his campaign promises—saying one thing before taking office and another after, a tactic he has used many times. The real situation is that core inflation in the West has shown signs of rising. If they follow his aggressive plan, subsequent measures will have to continue easing to counteract that, which depends on whose fundamentals can withstand it.

The RMB against the US dollar has been oscillating within this range for a long time, but it will definitely break through this channel. The expectation of a downward breakout within ten years is quite strong.

$BTC $ETH $SOL All of these are worth re-examining in this broader context.

BTC-1,32%

ETH-2,68%

SOL-1,7%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
10
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TokenRationEater

· 2025-12-20 20:46

6.5 is a psychological level; breaking it is what makes it interesting. The RMB depreciation is truly a sweet spot for traders. Trump's rhetoric about interest rate cuts, just listen and forget about it. The trade surplus peaking should have happened already. Can BTC hold up? That's the real question. An increase in imports sounds good, but exporters are crying. Inflation hasn't fully cooled down yet, what's with the easing? A breakdown within ten years? I think it will happen within five years. $SOL has been so weak recently, is it related to the exchange rate too? The Federal Reserve is just talking again, same old routine.

View OriginalReply0

RektButAlive

· 2025-12-20 20:00

Is 6.5 really coming? It feels like this round, exporters are going to get chopped up like chives. Trump's rhetoric... nonsense, who believes it is the fool. The real issue is the depreciation of the RMB; see you in ten years. Getting in on BTC and ETH at this point is a bit risky. Trade surplus peak? Been obvious for a while, should have adjusted earlier. The Federal Reserve can't really cut rates; inflation still needs to be tackled. What happens after breaking 6.5? Continue downward? Can we chase SOL? Feels a bit risky. Expanding imports is essentially a form of devaluation. Do you understand?

View OriginalReply0

AirDropMissed

· 2025-12-20 18:52

The trade surplus peak was obvious long ago; the cycle of RMB depreciation has arrived. BTC should be viewed this way: the Federal Reserve's verbal commitments are always different from actual actions. At the 6.5 level... I bet it won't break by the end of the year. Rebalancing imports and exports—it's called adjustment in nice terms, but in harsh terms, it's being forced. Trump's radical rhetoric is purely to fool people; if he actually governed, he'd have to shrink obediently. A ten-year downward break? I think it started eight years ago. Should $SOL be bought at this macro background? In this round of RMB appreciation and depreciation, retail investors really can't make money. Europe's blame-shifting is satisfying, but we have no choice but to increase imports. Inflation is still brewing, and the room for easing later is limited. This logical chain is actually forcing RMB to depreciate long-term. From a trillion to a few hundred billion in trade surplus, exporters must be crying in the bathroom.

View OriginalReply0

NFTragedy

· 2025-12-18 02:41

6.5 Break or not? It depends on how Europe reacts Trump promises just for fun, this trick is too old haha I'm a bit surprised that the trade surplus has peaked BTC needs to be re-positioned The RMB movement this time is really worth watching

View OriginalReply0

GamefiGreenie

· 2025-12-18 02:41

The 6.5 level is indeed worth paying close attention to, but it seems there is still room for policy adjustments. The appreciation and depreciation of the RMB truly have a ripple effect; exporters are under tremendous pressure. Trump's rhetoric is just for listening; the actual implementation is a different matter. BTC and ETH might really need to be re-priced in this wave.

View OriginalReply0

SatoshiHeir

· 2025-12-18 02:39

It should be pointed out that your trade balance theory's argumentative framework has a fatal flaw—based on quantitative analysis from the United Nations trade database, the correlation between narrowing trade surpluses and currency appreciation is far from as linear as you imagine. What’s truly interesting is that you completely fail to touch on the truth reflected by on-chain data regarding capital flows. BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies are the real keys to deciphering the macro shift, not those policy-level "expectation management" strategies. Honestly, using Trump’s 1% interest rate cut promise as a point to criticize is a bit cheap, but I must admit—you do have a fairly accurate insight into the signs of rising inflation in the West.

View OriginalReply0

Rugman_Walking

· 2025-12-18 02:35

Trump's 1% argument, wake up brother, just listen and forget it --- 6.5 is indeed a critical level, but will the trade surplus really peak? It depends on how the subsequent data unfolds --- Exporters are about to get unlucky, the impact of currency appreciation is really significant --- The Fed has a 7.3% chance of cutting interest rates? It feels like US stocks might first experience some volatility --- The RMB breaking downward, BTC might actually have a chance, this logic is interesting --- Trillion-dollar trade surplus becoming history? This is the real game rule rewrite --- Inflation rising and still wanting aggressive easing, Western chess moves are a bit chaotic --- Increase in imports and slowdown in exports, asset allocation needs to be adjusted quickly --- SOL might be seriously undervalued in this big context --- Trade imbalance confrontation, the night before the reshuffling of international game rules

View OriginalReply0

WalletDoomsDay

· 2025-12-18 02:33

6.5 really? Listening to Trump's interest rate cut promise is just for fun. If you take it seriously, you'll lose.

View OriginalReply0

FromMinerToFarmer

· 2025-12-18 02:20

Trade surplus peaks? Then exporters might have a tough time for a while --- Trump's approach... just listen, don't take it seriously --- Can it reach 6.5? Anyway, the RMB needs to break out of the consolidation this time --- A decade of depreciation? Hmm, doesn't seem that pessimistic --- Increased imports sound good, but will merchants really foot the bill? --- The Fed's dot plot is more reliable than Trump's mouth --- So should the crypto market follow the RMB depreciation expectations to position? --- The narrowing of the trade surplus was actually long overdue, just late --- Inflation hasn't gone away, and the difficulty of cutting interest rates is greater than expected --- Reconsider BTC? Isn't now the perfect time?

View OriginalReply0

LucidSleepwalker

· 2025-12-18 02:18

6.5 this level, I bet it won't break by the end of the year Trump's rhetoric, just listen and forget about it, the market isn't that naive The logic that the trade surplus has peaked doesn't quite hold up; increased imports can still maintain a trade advantage BTC really needs to be looked at again; the logic in the crypto world is completely different from traditional finance

View OriginalReply0