#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 12.18 Gold Market Analysis: Dovish Momentum Continues, Bulls Charge Toward New Highs

Yesterday's Market Review

Gold opened yesterday at $4303.1/oz. Although it tested the $4301 support level early in the session, the rally quickly gained momentum, reaching a high of $4349.5 before closing at $4338.5—a medium-sized bullish candle with a relatively short upper shadow. From a technical perspective, the price has broken through the previous consolidation range and stabilized at higher levels, giving bullish traders more confidence.

Underlying Logic and Market Focus

The main driving force comes from signals released by the Federal Reserve. The Fed's joint survey indicates that tariffs are still disrupting business operations, with inflation expectations remaining around 4% next year. More importantly, Fed Governor Waller explicitly stated that the current monetary policy remains in a tightening cycle, with room for further rate cuts. Employment data also supports the case for rate cuts. The current interest rate level is 50-100 basis points above the neutral rate. This dovish tone directly pressured the US dollar index, allowing gold and silver to strengthen.

Today's Trading Strategy

Aggressive traders can go long directly at the $4310 level; conservative traders can wait for a suitable entry around $4307, with a stop-loss set below $4303 to limit risk.

The upper target is viewed in three levels: first at $4335, then at $4342, and finally in the $4350-$4354 resistance zone. If this area is broken, there is a chance to directly challenge the historical high of $4380.