Recently, the market adjustment under the expectation of this round of rate hikes has left many traders' positions in disarray. Looking at yesterday's 24-hour liquidation statistics makes it clear— traders were liquidated, $@E5@ billion turned into bubbles, with long positions accounting for the majority—.77 billion, while short liquidations were only around $@E5@ million. This data is enough to show that this is not some sudden black swan event, but an adjustment that was bound to come in the face of obvious negative signals.

From Bitcoin's price movement, signs of this decline have been evident for a while. After the previous ascending wedge broke down, the price accelerated downward, with key support levels being broken one after another. The rebound to 90,000 yesterday? Essentially, it was a trap to induce longs. The rebound seemed strong, but the ceiling is already clear—during a strong trend, reaching 88,000; during a weak trend, even holding 87,000 is difficult.

In the short-term technical analysis, there are indeed some signals of decreasing volume in shorts and a low-level golden cross, but don’t be fooled by these superficial signs. Until there is a confirmed bottoming signal on the daily chart, the rebound should only be seen as a phase of technical correction.

From a trading perspective, the 87,000–88,000 range is a relatively clear short opportunity. If the price falls back from this range, the next target is set at 83,000–80,000. For more aggressive traders, once the psychological level of 80,000 is broken, 75,000 becomes the next observation point. Since there is no confirmed bottoming on the daily chart, there’s no need to rush into a bottom-fishing position.

Looking at Ethereum, it currently shows a standard bearish flag pattern— the previous sharp decline is the "flagpole," and the subsequent consolidation zone is the "flag." This pattern usually indicates further downside. The decline from the high to the low has already been significant, but from a morphological perspective, the downtrend has not yet been confirmed as complete.

Overall, this is not a good time to bottom-fish. It’s better to keep your account balance intact and wait for clearer signals of a bottom. The cruel truth of the market is that the tuition often gets paid by those who go into early bottom-fishing trades.