I am quite pessimistic about the future market trend, which differs from the judgment of many friends. In a bear market environment, every rebound is easily crushed back down, and the 80,000 level is hard to hold. At least for the first half of the year, I don’t plan to bottom fish for long-term positions; the technicals have already broken down, so I can only focus on short-term trades.

There are actually several reasons supporting this view:

**Technical indicators have already shown a death cross.** From the monthly chart, the key moving averages have already turned bearish. There’s no sign of the fast and slow lines returning to the zero axis, making it hard to imagine a large-scale bull run ahead. This is not nonsense but is supported by clear technical signals.

**High levels in the US stock market are unavoidable.** The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both at all-time highs, and a decline is almost inevitable. Can Bitcoin really move independently? That’s too naive. The macro environment is worsening, and risk assets are the first to be affected.

**Next year’s policy environment will be unfriendly.** There are no expectations of rate cuts; instead, there are expectations of rate hikes. Without liquidity easing, what justifies a strong market? This is completely different from the environment of the last bull run.

**Institutions and exchanges have not experienced large-scale collapses yet.** During the previous top, Three Arrows Capital and a major exchange all collapsed, causing extreme market panic. This round, however, we haven’t seen similar sell-off events, indicating that the bottom has not yet arrived.

**Historical comparisons are very sobering.** This round, the price dropped from 126,000 to 80,000, a decline of about 36%. The last bull market dropped from 69,000 to 44,000, also a 36% decline. And then? It directly plummeted from 44,000 to 15,800, a 63% drop. This means that even if it looks very low now, there are still risks ahead.