Some opinions hold that a bear market cycle is inevitable next, which is completely opposite to the generally optimistic views, and there are many reasons.

The key point is—Bitcoin's monthly chart has already formed a death cross. In this technical state, why expect a bull market? At least, both the fast and slow lines need to return near the zero axis before there's hope. Currently, even rebounds are pushed back by bearish candles, and the 80,000 support level is not strong enough.

Looking at the external environment, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still consolidating at high levels, and a decline is only a matter of time. Can Bitcoin move independently and be unaffected by traditional finance? Honestly, that's a bit difficult.

The monetary policy outlook is also not optimistic. There are no rate cut expectations next year; instead, the possibility of rate hikes is greater. Without the support of liquidity, what’s the reason for a rally? Without this wind, market momentum will inevitably be limited.

Comparing to the previous cycle is quite interesting. Back then, many institutions went bankrupt one after another—exchanges collapsing, Three Arrows Capital crashing, leading platforms collectively delisting—that was a typical market cleansing. This time? We haven't seen systemic risks from major institutions or exchanges. This instead suggests that the accumulated problems may not have been fully released yet.

The most convincing factor is the data. Bitcoin fell from 126,000 to 80,000, a decline of 36%. The previous cycle saw a drop from 69,000 to 44,000, also 36%, but then it plunged straight down to 15,800, with a total decline of 63%. Based on this logic, there is still a lot of room for downside in this cycle.

In the short term, the moving average pattern is already chaotic, so only short-term trades can be considered to make quick profits. At least in the first half of next year, it’s better to slow down on bottom-fishing and long-term investments.