Tonight, the four major European central banks will simultaneously announce their interest rate decisions, marking the final major policy window of 2025. The European Central Bank, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank, and Norges Bank will take turns, but the market generally expects only one to actually take action.

First, let's look at the European Central Bank (results at 21:15). The mainstream view is that interest rates will remain unchanged, but the divergence among policymakers is the focus—some factions advocate for rate hikes, while others favor rate cuts. Most institutions believe that eurozone interest rates will stay stable in the short term; if adjustments are made, the earliest rate hikes would likely occur by the end of 2026 or early 2027. This time, the ECB may also raise its economic growth forecasts, signaling a hawkish stance.

Next, the Norges Bank (decision at 17:00). Currently, the interest rate is held at 4%. Previously, the market priced in a possible rate cut cycle starting in March next year, with recent bets evenly split. However, institutions predict that the central bank will remain cautious, and the first actual rate cut might not happen until June next year. The bank is unlikely to provide a clear timetable, only vague statements like "gradual adjustments if economic performance meets expectations." The governor is also likely to reiterate that inflation pressures have not yet eased, and there is no rush to cut rates.