#数字资产市场洞察 Friends holding ETH, don’t be fooled by the illusion of a bottoming out. Looking at the 1-hour K-line, this wave of ETH isn’t building a bottom; frankly, it’s just the bears taking a break after tiring out, gathering strength to continue pushing down.

Once the price breaks below the key support, it falls into a standard downtrend channel. Now, if it’s just wobbling at a low level, that’s not a sign of reversal; it’s just a gap in the selling pressure, and the downward momentum has not been fully released.

From the technical indicators, the situation is indeed quite grim. The MACD is resting below the zero line, supporting the bears, indicating that the bears are in control; RSI, although showing some upward movement, lacks overall momentum and can’t form a resistance; the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands are directly squeezing the price at the lower side, with the opening still widening. This is a typical bearish pattern—violent during sell-offs, weak during rebounds. This is the real bear market operation routine.

Next, ETH is likely to perform in these ways:

First: Rebound trap (probability 60%). The price supports at around 2789-2834, then slightly rebounds to around 2900-2950, only to be hammered back down by the bears to continue testing the lows. This kind of false rally is the most annoying.

Second: Accumulating strength at low levels (probability 30%). Repeated oscillations in the bottom area for several days, with bears accumulating selling power, then launching a new round of decline.

Third: Black swan reversal (probability only 10%). This requires a super positive news shock to hit directly; otherwise, don’t get your hopes up.

Operational suggestions for everyone:

If you’re holding ETH now, especially if you’re caught at a high level: when the price struggles to push above 2900-2950, cut your position and stop loss; once it breaks below 2780, don’t hesitate—exit immediately.

For active traders: follow the bears’ rhythm, no mistake. Either wait for a rebound to 2900-2930 and open a short when it hits resistance, or chase the short when it breaks below 2789, with a stop loss above 2980.

As for bottom fishing and going long? That’s a heartbeat game for professional short-term traders. Positions must be extremely light, stop-losses strictly enforced. Ordinary traders should never try it; better to miss the opportunity than to make the wrong move.

The whole market is indeed a bit sluggish right now, but opportunities never disappear—they just require patience. Use trend analysis and strict risk management, so when the next wave arrives, you can seize the trend. $ETH