Last night's market movement provided us with many insights. Bitcoin, within just two hours, plummeted from a high of 90,000 down to around 86,000. The intense volatility and wide fluctuations behind this movement clearly reflect a problem—bulls are clearly losing strength at this level, and the buying momentum is insufficient to sustain the upward trend.

From a technical perspective, how heavy is the selling pressure after this rebound? Very heavy. This indicates that market participants have divergent expectations for the subsequent gains, and a large amount of profit-taking has created significant selling pressure at high levels. In the short term, I personally believe it will be quite difficult to once again challenge the previous high near 94,500. Market sentiment has not fully recovered, and the buying enthusiasm is not strong enough to continue the rally.

It is worth noting that tomorrow the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be announced. At this time, expectations of tightening USD liquidity may further suppress the rebound strength of risk assets. Combined with the current technical pattern, I tend to believe that Bitcoin's medium-term focus should still be on holding the 80,000 support line. Once this level is effectively broken, a new round of downside space will open up, and there may be further declines.

Regarding the market sentiment indicator, I notice that the panic index seems to have lost its reference significance at this stage. During the last bear market, panic sentiment continued to spread, and this round's performance is no different—investors' psychological expectations have remained relatively pessimistic. This sentiment may persist for some time.

Looking at the altcoin sector, the situation is even more concerning. Last night, while Bitcoin was fluctuating, altcoins did not break below previous support levels, but that does not mean the risk has been eliminated. The entire altcoin sector weakened collectively yesterday, including relatively large-cap projects like ZEC, ASTER, and HYPE, all of which hit new lows.

The reason behind this is simple—these projects' valuation bubbles have not yet been fully squeezed out. Considering last year's highs, although they have already fallen quite a bit, there is still considerable room for adjustment compared to reasonable fundamental valuations. My judgment is that in the upcoming cycle, altcoins may continue to be under pressure until their valuations return to a relatively rational range, at which point a true bottom may be reached. This process could take some time, and patience might be the wiser choice.

In such a market environment, investors need more rational analysis rather than blindly chasing gains. Paying close attention to the performance at key technical levels, especially the support around 80,000, as well as subsequent macro liquidity changes, is crucial for grasping the market rhythm.