#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH Why did the market still fall so sharply after the rate cut? Is a bear market really here? If there truly is no "Shanzhai" season, does anyone in the crypto circle still hold on?

The rate cut has been implemented, but the crypto market instead plunged. Bitcoin dropped back to around 85,000 USD, Ethereum directly fell below 3,000 USD, and mining companies and related concept stocks all declined by double digits.

This wave of adjustment, frankly, is the result of three forces stacking up: The first is the action by the Bank of Japan. They are ending negative interest rates, with the market generally expecting a 97% probability of rate hikes. The historical pattern is clear — Japan's rate hikes often accompany significant corrections in Bitcoin. Over the years, global funds have been borrowing yen to bottom-fish in crypto assets, but once interest rates rise, these low-cost financing positions are forced to be liquidated and closed.

The second is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next move. Although this rate cut has been executed, the future direction depends on upcoming data. If this week's non-farm payrolls and inflation data fall short of expectations, the Fed's subsequent decisions will need to be readjusted. Different central banks' policies are out of sync, and the global liquidity environment is complicated, making it inevitable for risk assets to come under pressure.

The third is the relentless selling pressure on-chain. The shutdown of mining farms has caused hash rate to plummet, forcing miners to sell coins just to stay afloat. Plus, early large holders are accelerating their liquidation, and ETF outflows occasionally hit large single-day withdrawals. Market makers follow suit, amplifying market volatility wave after wave.

Combining these factors — arbitrage capital fleeing, weakening liquidity expectations, and on-chain selling pressure — this correction is basically the trend. The next key point is whether the 85,000 USD support level can hold, and how macro data and policy signals will evolve.