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🚀 The Federal Reserve's stance shifts: rate cuts imminent, but don't expect a flood of liquidity

Recently, comments from Fed officials have caught market attention — interest rates have already restrained economic growth, and conditions for rate cuts are gradually maturing, but there won't be an aggressive easing.

📌 Let's break down some key points:

▎Interest rates are too high
According to officials, current interest rates are about 50-100 basis points above the neutral level. What does this mean? It means money is too expensive, dragging down the economy. This leaves room for rate cuts.

▎Conditions for starting rate cuts have eased
In the past, rate cuts required clear signs of economic recession and rising unemployment. Now, it's different — as long as inflation remains moderate, rate cuts can be initiated. The market reacts enthusiastically to this new signal.

▎Slowing employment becomes a trigger
Recently, job growth has been slowing, and the uncertainties brought by the AI wave provide reasons for a shift in monetary policy.

⚠️ But a word of caution: adjustments will be gradual, with a steady pace, and will definitely not return to the liquidity-spreading era of post-2008. Officials' attitude is very clear — they aim to balance between steady growth, employment protection, and preventing inflation rebound, avoiding extremes.

Interestingly, these officials are widely seen as top contenders for the next Fed Chair. In other words, what they say now is likely to set the tone for next year's policy: the direction of rate cuts is clear, but progress will be measured, and there won't be a sudden wave of stimulus.

📊 Looking ahead:
The rate cut cycle is expected to officially start next year, with each step guided by data. Global markets may fluctuate accordingly, so pay attention to inflation and employment data trends, and stay flexible for adjustments.

Market conditions change rapidly; rational tracking is key to finding opportunities.