#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Tonight's inflation data is coming. Can gold break through the 4350 level?

Many people say they don't understand why gold is so closely linked to CPI data. Actually, the logic is very clear—inflation data influences Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which in turn determine the strength of the US dollar. The strength of the dollar directly affects gold prices. This transmission chain is like a domino effect, one after another.

**Why is inflation data so critical**

When the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy, CPI is the top priority. The goal is clear—to keep inflation within the 2% range. When inflation data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations are reinforced; conversely, if the data is lower, expectations for rate cuts begin to ferment.

This directly impacts how the market views the dollar and interest rates. When rate hike expectations rise, real interest rates increase, the dollar appreciates, and assets like gold that do not generate interest become less attractive—holding costs rise, and gold prices are suppressed. When expectations shift toward rate cuts, the opposite occurs: the dollar weakens, and gold has room to rise.

**What happens after the data is released**

Using the November CPI expectation of 3.1% as a reference point, let's consider three possible scenarios:

**If inflation slows down (data below 3.0%)**

In this case, the market will confirm that inflation is retreating, and expectations for rate cuts will strengthen further. The dollar will weaken, and bullish momentum for gold will be particularly strong. At this point, holding long positions is advisable, or even adding to positions when opportunities arise. The probability of gold breaking above 4350 is relatively high.

**If the data performs moderately (between 3.0% and 3.1%)**

This is a typical wait-and-see zone. The market may feel a bit conflicted—should we continue betting on rate cuts? The certainty of rate cuts diminishes significantly. As a result, gold is likely to fluctuate within a certain range, with bulls and bears fighting it out. In this situation, it's recommended not to rush into heavy positions—either stay on the sidelines or trade lightly to capture volatility.

**If inflation is more stubborn than expected (above 3.1%)**

This is the scenario most bears hope for. The stickiness of inflation is stronger than anticipated, and the Fed may reconsider rate hikes. The dollar will strengthen, and gold prices will be suppressed. Bears will have the upper hand. If you are still holding long positions, it might be time to take profits; alternatively, consider setting up short positions to catch this downward move.

**Some additional details to watch**

Core CPI (which excludes volatile items like energy and food) actually better reflects the true stickiness of inflation. The strength of this indicator influences the Fed's policy adjustment pace, thereby extending the impact cycle on gold prices. So, don't just focus on the overall CPI; keep an eye on core CPI as well.

Also, don’t forget that real interest rates are the true anchor for gold pricing. You need to look at CPI data together with nominal interest rates—the relative change between the two will tell you how gold prices might move. Focusing solely on CPI can easily mislead you due to short-term market fluctuations.

**Bottom-line logic**

Whether tonight's data can push gold above 4350 depends on whether inflation is truly trending downward. If a rate cut trend is confirmed, the dollar will weaken, and gold will have a chance to rise. Traders, keep a close eye on the data and prepare accordingly.