Tonight at 21:30, a set of flawed US economic data will be released—November non-farm payrolls combined with a partial version of October data. These numbers are unlikely to be simply interpreted; instead, they resemble a stress test on the market.

First, let's discuss why this data has issues. The longest government shutdown in US history directly impacted the October household survey—key indicators like the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate experienced gaps for the first time since records began in 1948. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also acknowledged that the statistical variance of the November data is larger than in previous years, meaning the margin of error is wider than usual. Plus, over 100,000 federal employees have left their jobs at this point, adding noise to the non-farm payroll figures.

Looking at institutional expectations reveals how wide the divergence is—from an anticipated increase of 10,000 jobs in October to some forecasts predicting a decrease of 30,000—this range reflects the uncertainty in data quality. Against this backdrop, obsessing over whether the numbers look good or bad is essentially a blind bet.

The key is not guessing which direction the data will move, but rather how the Federal Reserve's attitude toward "downside risks" will react. If Powell's wording shifts or policy expectations change, the crypto market often reacts first. Market liquidity, risk sentiment, and commodity prices can all cascade in response, and as a high-beta asset, cryptocurrencies are even more sensitive.

During this data window, instead of trying to precisely forecast employment figures, it’s more meaningful to focus on subtle signals from policy changes—that’s what truly influences the subsequent market rhythm.