Robinhood CEO revealed on CNBC last night: predicts the market is entering a "super cycle"! It is very likely to become the biggest "new meme cycle" of this round!

Robinhood Founder and CEO Vlad Tenev was interviewed on CNBC last night, where he made a bold prediction: Prediction Markets are entering a super cycle, and explosive growth is expected in the coming years! He even believes this could be the most noteworthy new narrative in this cycle—a completely new asset class combining AI, social, and derivatives. After CNBC aired part of the content, the latter half of the Q&A was cut. I’ve compiled the full missing Q&A below, packed with valuable insights. Friends, be sure to save and discuss!

What exactly are Prediction Markets? Why are they about to take off?

Prediction markets are essentially platforms that turn future events into tradable contracts, such as “Will Trump be re-elected in 2026?” “Will OpenAI release AGI this year?” “Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in March?” Users buy and sell “Yes/No” contracts, with prices reflecting the market consensus probability. Platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, Kalshi are all involved. Robinhood launched during last year’s election, and this year has entered its second and third iteration phases.

Vlad Tenev’s core points:

• Prediction markets are legitimate derivative markets regulated by the CFTC (unlike gambling)
• Speculation is a normal and necessary part of derivative markets
• Retail traders often enter first, followed by institutional players (a pattern seen in futures and crypto)
• In the future, institutions will use prediction markets to hedge major risks like interest rates, elections, geopolitics, with scale far beyond expectations

Complete and valuable Q&A summary

Q1: What’s the line between gambling and trading? With a loose regulatory environment, how to prevent insider trading?

Vlad Tenev responds: The debate over “gambling vs trading” is essentially a word game. The key difference is:

• Prediction markets operate on exchanges regulated by the CFTC, forming real markets between buyers and sellers
• Any early-stage derivative market has faced criticism for being “too speculative”: futures, options, crypto are all the same
• Without speculators, there’s no liquidity for hedgers, and markets can’t function effectively
• History proves these markets ultimately bring huge value to all participants
• Institutions are already hedging interest rate risks with trillion-dollar products; prediction markets are a more efficient tool
• As institutions enter, the market will grow significantly, and retail traders’ early participation is normal

Q2: How will AI + prediction markets change finance and news?

Vlad Tenev’s bold outlook: Robinhood is no longer just a “trade execution tool,” but is evolving upstream—providing a complete system for “generating trading ideas.” Three major tools are converging:

1. Prediction markets (real probability consensus)
2. Robinhood social features (sharing user opinions)
3. Robinhood Cortex (internal AI financial intelligence)

In the future:

• Users will research, analyze, discuss, and generate trading ideas on Robinhood, then execute with one click
• News will no longer be one-way; it will be priced in real-time by market consensus
• AI will help users discover hidden opportunities, with prediction markets becoming “real-time prices of truth”
• Long-term, Robinhood aims to become a key player in institutional markets (announced joint acquisition of LedgerX derivatives exchange with Susquehanna)

Q3: With such fierce competition from sports betting companies, Kalshi, Polymarket, what gives Robinhood an edge?

Vlad Tenev confidently responds:

• Sports betting companies do feel threatened and are accelerating their efforts
• Any early-growth market will be fiercely competitive, as seen in crypto
• Robinhood’s three unique advantages:
  1. First-mover advantage (launched during last year’s election, multiple iterations and user feedback)
  2. The only large-scale platform integrating stocks, options, crypto, overseas futures, tokenized perpetual contracts, and prediction markets
  3. Moving into institutional markets, accelerating adoption

Why might prediction markets be the “new meme cycle” in this round?

Vlad Tenev’s judgment: Prediction markets will bring a new super cycle of retail frenzy + institutional deployment, similar to ICOs in 2017 and NFTs in 2021.

Final advice

Prediction markets are not gambling but “legitimate derivatives that price the future based on market consensus.” Robinhood is integrating stocks, crypto, prediction markets, and AI social features, with ambitions far beyond just being a “retail trading platform.” In this cycle, prediction markets are likely to become the most noteworthy “new meme narrative”—opportunities are early, but so are risks. Friends, what do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments: A. Ready to enter prediction markets B. Watch and wait for institutions to come in C. Think it’s still too speculative D. Already playing on Polymarket/Kalshi

Let’s discuss together—perhaps the next big opportunity is hidden in “future events”!