The market has already fully priced in the Bank of Japan's rate hike on December 19. The implied probability of rate hike in the OIS market is as high as 94%-98%, and the central bank has also communicated in advance, so there is basically no possibility of a "black swan."

Why not fear panic? Several main reasons:

First, expectations have already been digested. Major institutions have long completed stress testing and position adjustments, and the crowding in carry trades has significantly decreased compared to last year, so a collective stampede is unlikely.

Second, the size of the rate hike is not actually aggressive. It is expected to increase by only 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the actual interest rate remains negative. The interest rate differential between the yen and the dollar still exists, so carry trade funds won't blindly flow back.

Third, the Federal Reserve has shifted. The Fed is moving towards easing policies, which can offset the spillover impact caused by Japan's tightening.

From the perspective of Bitcoin, this rate hike is more likely to be just a short-term emotional disturbance, at most triggering some volatility, and unlikely to cause a deep decline. Unless the Bank of Japan suddenly surprises with a 50 basis point hike and continues hawkish tightening guidance, which could truly trigger panic selling.

In terms of operation, keep an eye on the support level of $85,000-$86,000. As long as it holds, expect a mainly volatile market; if it breaks below, gradually reduce positions according to previous target levels. No need to scare yourself into rushing out early.