#数字资产市场洞察 How much impact will the Bank of Japan's rate hike have on the crypto market? The March 19th policy meeting is about to take place, and this question is heating up in the market.

Currently, the market's probability of pricing in a 25bp rate hike to 0.75% has approached 98%, the highest in nearly twenty years. What seems like a small interest rate adjustment actually triggers a clear risk chain: rising yen financing costs → accelerated unwind of carry trades → capital flows back to the domestic market → liquidity in risk assets is temporarily squeezed. The short-term pressure on major coins like BTC and ETH can be imagined.

A look at history makes it clear. After three rate hikes in March, July 2024, and January this year, BTC has experienced over 20% retracements each time, with the most severe approaching 31%. This is not minor volatility but a genuine correction.

However, the situation is not entirely black and white. The outcome of the rate hike could follow several different paths: if it aligns with expectations (a 25bp neutral stance), the market will first digest the uncertainty, and short-term movements may be volatile and corrective; if the central bank adopts a more hawkish tone, signaling continued rate hikes, the retracement could deepen; if rates stay unchanged, sentiment can recover, but the rebound space might be limited by year-end liquidity conditions.

The core strategy is to maintain positions carefully, control the pace, and act only after the meeting results are confirmed. Keep a close eye on whether BTC and ETH have enough support, and whether the central bank's rhetoric truly shifts. $HMSTR $ACT $BARD Other cryptocurrencies are also worth watching for market linkages.