#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Behind the three-year interest rate cut expectations from Citibank, what risks are hidden?

These days, the market is speculating on Citibank's forecast of "three cuts in 2025 and continued cuts in 2026." On the surface, it seems very bullish, but upon closer inspection, things might not be that simple. Major institutions revealing their interest rate cut roadmap for 2026 in advance indicates they have already figured out the future capital flow directions. This is not a prediction; it’s a clear signal.

The issue is: while retail investors are fixated on the "benefits next year," smart money has already shifted its focus to the window for escaping the top. The Federal Reserve’s initial easing phase has always been a high-risk period—capital will take advantage of good news to sell off, waiting for retail investors to follow, and then the retail investors get harvested. This is an old market pattern.

There’s an even more critical layer: rate cuts ≠ the crypto market must rise. The increase in the dollar supply has occurred, but where is the money flowing? If traditional assets (US stocks, bonds) rise in tandem due to rate cuts, funds might flow back from the crypto space. The result is—what was expected to be a mild bull market turns into intense volatility, or even a stage where major players use good news to shake out positions.

So what should we do now? A few suggestions:

First, don’t chase highs. Any good news that truly materializes often already prices in risk, and the market tends to react in advance.

Second, keep flexible positions. At least 30% cash reserves should be maintained; a sharp decline is the real opportunity to buy in.

Third, continuously monitor Federal Reserve officials’ wording. A hawkish statement can flip the market in a second.

The crypto market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing is the ability to stay calm amid frenzy. When the tide recedes, you can see who truly understands the market; when the tide comes in, you must confirm whether your position is solid. Long-standing investors are those who prepared risk management tools during market madness. $ETH