#大户持仓动态 $TAO Spot Analysis 20251218 13:00 UTC

The halving just passed, and TAO's recent market movement is quite interesting. The price dropped from $249.90 to $232.10, a 7.12% decline in 24 hours. Technically, the 7-day, 25-day, and 99-day moving averages are all showing a bearish alignment, indicating significant downward momentum. The community is now buzzing—some say it will fall to $200, while others insist that after the halving, there will be a rebound and a surge past the thousand-dollar mark. The middle ground is looking at this 53% annual decline and feeling a bit confused.

But from a fundamental perspective, the halving event on December 14th was actually quite pivotal. Daily supply was cut from 7,200 to 3,600, directly changing expectations around scarcity, which is beneficial for long-term token support. The ecosystem is also quietly thriving—Bittensor's subnet count has expanded from 65 at the start of the year to 128, a growth rate of 97%, indicating that developers are continuously exploring the network's potential.

Additionally, Grayscale has launched a Bittensor trust ($GTAO), which is now listed on OTCQX, opening a new door for institutional investors in the US. The current concern is that the issue of network centralization has not been fully resolved; the OpenTensor Foundation, as the sole validator, is somewhat bottlenecked. Plus, with daily token unlocks adding selling pressure, short-term sentiment remains somewhat pressured.

The price trend looks fierce, but the story of ecosystem growth is still ongoing. What's your take?