The Bitcoin Bull Run Puzzle: Why Traditional Signals Are Absent This Cycle

Current Price Snapshot

Bitcoin trades at $89.23K with a +1.54% 24-hour gain, yet the absence of typical bull market confirmation signals raises critical questions about the current market structure.

Missing Bull Signals, Triggered Bear Indicators

This bull run cycle stands out for what didn’t happen rather than what did. Traditional euphoric topping signals—those explosive, capitulation-fueled rallies—never materialized. Yet simultaneously, several bearish technical patterns have activated:

• The 50-week moving average breakdown: BTC has closed below this key level, with expectations for consecutive closes below it by this weekend. History shows this typically marks the beginning of bear markets.

• Death cross dysfunction: The death cross normally signals market bottoms, but this time it failed to bounce—a distinctly bearish pattern. Interestingly, this same behavior occurred in January 2022, right as that bear cycle was commencing.

• Cycle timing consistency: Despite the unusual price action, the 4-year cycle length holds true, with the pattern repeating in Q4 each time. This regularity suggests we may be following the same temporal framework as previous cycles.

Rethinking the Market Narrative

The initial thesis—expecting a December or January peak—no longer holds. The market is presenting a hybrid scenario: neither the traditional bull euphoria nor the catastrophic bear collapse, but rather something in between.

An Alternative Outlook: Calibrated Decline and Delayed Peak

Rather than the historical 70% correction, this bear phase may be more measured—possibly a 50% drawdown—followed by a recovery synchronized with business cycle signals. According to ISM indicators, this rebound could emerge in mid-to-late 2026, with a potential peak in 2027 when capital flows back into risk assets. This timing would finally deliver the genuine euphoria and capitulation top that typically characterizes mature bull cycles.

The current environment may simply be the market repricing for the next phase, where accumulation periods translate into genuine explosive growth.