#数字资产市场洞察 $DOGE $ETH $BTC Tonight's two waves of shocks: Will the US CPI+Japan Bank of Japan decision turn the tide first?

Market has calmed for a few days, and now it's back. Tonight and tomorrow, two major global events will land one after another—the US CPI data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The market is currently like standing on the edge of a cliff.

**1. US CPI: 3% is the critical threshold**

At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the US CPI will be released as scheduled, with market expectations around 3%. This number seems simple but actually directly determines the Fed's next move:

- Break below 3%? Expect interest rate cuts to surge, funds will start seeking exits, and risk assets like $BTC might rebound quickly. Historically, a one-hour increase can reach 7%.
- Break above 3%? Inflation is still fighting back, and the Fed may continue to hold steady. The market could see a sharp decline again, with crypto prices dropping $2500 within 15 minutes, as we've seen before.

**2. Bank of Japan: Hidden bloodletting plan**

Tomorrow afternoon, the Bank of Japan will announce its decision, with a 99% certainty that interest rates will rise to 0.75%. But what really matters is the governor's tone afterward:

- Continue hawkish (hinting at further moves next year) → Collective exit of arbitrage traders → All funds shorting the yen will close positions → Liquidity will dry up instantly, and the crypto market faces a deep correction of 20%-30%.
- Shift to a dovish stance → Short-term rebound possible, but long-term downward pressure remains.

**How to view this one night and day?**

Recently, the focus should be on Japan—before the interest rate hike is finalized, any hawkish signals could trigger a chain of liquidations. From a long-term perspective, whether US CPI can fall below 2.8% is the real key to changing the trend.

Relying on a single event to rescue the market is basically unlikely. Unless US CPI improves significantly and the Bank of Japan suddenly softens its stance, the market won't withstand such unilateral shocks.

Friends holding positions, this night might be quite intense. Let's watch together in the comments section and talk after the data is out.