#大户持仓动态 The true picture of the recent crypto market: BTC repeatedly tests around $86,000, lacking upward momentum; ETH is in deeper suppression. The fear index has surged to an extreme level of 18. Trading volume is sluggish, direction is unclear, and the overall market is filled with a dull atmosphere of uncertainty—this is the current situation.

Many interpret this round of adjustment as purely panic selling, but the reality is more complex. Funds are choosing to wait and see, trading activity continues to decline. Bulls lack the courage to add positions, and bears have no motivation to push further down. Retail investors have long since started to give up. The most painful aspect of this kind of market is only one thing: no clear trend, only repeated exhaustion.

Why is this happening? Besides the technical weakness, there is an often-overlooked macro pressure—Japan’s interest rate hike expectations. This is not just Japan’s issue; it is affecting global liquidity. Imagine that over the years, the yen has served as the cheapest financing currency worldwide, with large positions accumulated through arbitrage strategies like "borrowing yen and then buying stocks or crypto assets." Once Japan begins its rate hike cycle, these arbitrage funds start to flow back, resulting in a marginal tightening of liquidity in risk assets. You will see the US tech sector weaken in tandem, and $BTC and $ETH also come under pressure, with rebound strength noticeably weaker than in previous rounds—this is the impact of this macro liquidity drain.

From a technical perspective, BTC’s resistance zone is between 89,000 and 90,000, with key support levels at 84,000 and 80,000. ETH’s performance is even weaker, clearly lagging behind BTC. Unless there are clear signals of "volume increase and structural reversal," it’s not advisable to rush into bottom fishing. The current situation resembles a secondary correction after a high-level adjustment, rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

For ordinary traders, there are several operational taboos at this stage. It’s unwise to heavily bet on a rebound, and high-leverage contracts are especially risky. A more prudent approach is to wait for key levels to be confirmed, while strictly controlling the size of each position, leaving enough ammunition to respond to any sudden volatility. In other words, it’s better to watch a rebound pass by than to have your chips gradually worn down by sideways consolidation.

At this point, the crypto market situation is quite typical—technical weakness combined with macro liquidity drain, plus participants’ extreme caution. This moment isn’t about who has the most accurate judgment, but about who has enough patience and strict discipline in execution. Opportunities never disappear; they only shift from unprepared hands to those who are ready.