The US November CPI data has just been released, and the figures are quite eye-catching—annual growth is only 2.7%, with core CPI steady at 2.6%. Both indicators fell short of expectations, hitting multi-year lows. The market has sensed a dovish tone, leading to a decline in the US dollar, while gold prices have risen. Rate futures data show that the probability of a rate cut in January has surged to 28.8%. Based on current projections, the total rate cut by 2026 could be around 62 basis points.

Can this data change the Federal Reserve's stance? Most analysts believe there is a chance. Although October's data may have been somewhat subdued due to the government shutdown, if the inflation slowdown continues, it could tip internal Fed debates fully towards a dovish stance. On the other hand, initial claims for unemployment benefits have slightly decreased, temporarily stabilizing the labor market. However, the shadow of tariff policies is suppressing corporate hiring intentions, subtly signaling an economic slowdown.

The question is whether this is a true bottoming of inflation or just a short-term statistical fluctuation. How many rate cuts and by how much in 2026 will depend entirely on December's CPI data. For holders of cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL, every adjustment in rate cut expectations can directly influence market sentiment. At this moment, market confidence hangs in the balance.