**Data Implementation and Market Response**

US November CPI was released yesterday, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled today. Two major news events occurred in succession, but did you notice — the market reaction was surprisingly calm.

**What’s next?**

The market may follow three scenarios. First, a sharp dip followed by a rebound and oscillation, then an upward trend. Second, a sharp dip followed by stabilization and bottoming, then a secondary rebound. The third, less likely possibility, is a decline continuing in weakness. The key lies in the strength of the sharp move — a strong move leans toward the first scenario, a weaker move toward the second.

If you are optimistic about Q1, you don’t necessarily have to hold at the lowest point; you can try to bet on a rebound at key levels. Short-term fluctuations are essentially chip rotations, and the long-term upward trend in Q1 remains unchanged. Trading is still optional; it all depends on your judgment of the subsequent trend.

**Why is it "thunder with little rain"?**

First, market expectations are managed too well. Although CPI data fell below expectations, due to delayed release and lack of October month-on-month data, the market had already priced it in early. The Bank of Japan’s rate hike was fully anticipated, which is why asset prices moved so smoothly.

Second, the current market focus is no longer on monthly inflation data. Traders are really concerned about the 2026 Fed chair change and the overall rate cut path. On CPI release day, the volatility of the S&P was bet at below 0.7%, far below the historical average.

Third, don’t be fooled by the "2.7%" figure. Behind this number is actually data collection limitations caused by a government shutdown. Smart money is pondering whether this data can be sustained, rather than celebrating blindly.

**Hidden Risks**

There are still over 77 million high-leverage long positions floating with unrealized losses among whales, and liquidation risk has not been completely eliminated just because the data was released. This remains an unstable factor weighing on the market.

The macro narrative is now entering a bit of a vacuum period. Market attention is shifting toward individual events and on-chain capital flows, which may lead to more volatility.

**The Long-term Logic Remains**

The market may seem chaotic, but the main thread is still clear — macro liquidity expectations and internal structural upgrades in crypto are in a race. Leveraged liquidations are just a short-term cleansing process; the real long-term story is capital migrating toward compliant channels and yield protocols. When it’s time to act, don’t be timid; when opportunities arise, keep your powder dry.