Does Bitcoin still have a 4-year cycle? This question has been discussed since the 2021 bull market, and there is still no definitive conclusion. To be honest, this kind of thing is really a matter of personal opinion.

Believers stick to their belief, skeptics continue to doubt. But what really matters is—do you believe or not, which determines how you operate. If you agree with the cycle theory, then your trading strategy will revolve around it; if you deny it, your approach will definitely be different.

Personally, I still tend to believe in the existence of a 4-year cycle, but the amplitude of this round of volatility might be smaller. Looking at historical data makes it clear—2017 saw a 78% drop from peak to trough, and in 2021, it also fell from a high point to a low point by 83%. But for the 2025 cycle, the decline probably won't be as exaggerated.

Why? The market has become more complex. There are more participants, larger capital pools, and more directions of speculation. It’s less likely now to give retail investors as many "entry" opportunities as in the early days. On the other hand, if the decline is too severe, it could truly turn from a bubble into a real crisis, with a weak rebound.

Some say that the $126,000 in early October was the top of this bull market, and the market will fall for a whole year afterward. According to usual patterns, the historical high point is usually followed by a cycle low about a year later. Assuming a 70% drop, that would be around $30,000–$40,000; if it only drops 60%, the bottom would be around $50,000.

But these are just theoretical numbers. Past patterns have some reference value for the future, but they don’t guarantee that the future will follow the same path. The market is constantly changing, influenced by various factors—macro policies, capital flows, sentiment cycles, anything can alter the trend. Even AI models can’t give accurate predictions, and we have no way to do better.

Ultimately, the most important thing is what you believe in—you will act accordingly. Once you choose a direction, you must also be prepared to bear the risks. The worst-case scenario is zeroing out, and that possibility always exists. Time will give the final answer. The only thing you can do now is make decisions based on your own judgment and risk tolerance.