Bitcoin demand growth hits new lows, a bear market signal emerges? On-chain data reveals a turning point

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, there is a phenomenon worth noting—on-chain data shows that the demand for Bitcoin has significantly slowed down.

Breaking it down, since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three obvious waves of spot demand: the launch of the US spot ETF, the US presidential election, and the Bitcoin treasury company boom. But these driving forces have all faded, especially since early October this year, when demand growth has fallen below the trend line. Simply put: the new demand that can be stimulated in this cycle has basically been exhausted.

From the derivatives perspective, the signs are also evident. The funding rate of perpetual futures (based on the 365-day moving average) has fallen to its lowest level since December 2023. Historically, such a decline usually indicates waning bullish positions—that’s more like a bear market signal, not a bull market.

The technical deterioration is even more straightforward. Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average, which has historically been a dividing line between bulls and bears. Losing this line often signals a change in direction.

But don’t be too pessimistic. Looking at the bear market bottom in history, Bitcoin’s decline during bear markets might be the smallest ever—current support levels are close to $56,000, which from recent highs is roughly a 55% drop, a relatively moderate level in history. In the medium term, around $70,000 is an important support level.

In short, the market is experiencing a transition from strong accumulation to weak adjustment, but the “depth” of this adjustment may not be too terrifying.