Quantum computing approaches reality? Bitcoin faces a ten-year upgrade window and the dilemma of 1.7 million lost coins

【Blockchain Rhythm】Quantum Computing Approaching Reality? How Fragile Is Bitcoin Really?

December 20th, the pioneer of smart contracts Nic Carter published an in-depth analysis of an unavoidable issue: how much of a threat does quantum computing pose to Bitcoin?

According to the latest research by renowned quantum theorist Scott Aaronson, cracking Bitcoin with quantum technology doesn’t require groundbreaking physical discoveries—it’s essentially an “extremely difficult” engineering challenge. In other words, theoretically, it’s feasible; the only difference is how hard it is to achieve.

Theoretical Solutions Exist, Practical Challenges Are Greater

Sounds concerning? Don’t worry, Bitcoin isn’t without options. Theoretically, introducing “post-quantum” signature schemes via soft forks is entirely possible. Moreover, some quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions already exist on the market. But here’s the problem—how to choose, how to modify, how to migrate? These three “hows” hide enormous complexity behind them.

Nic Carter points out that the real bottleneck isn’t the technology itself but coordination issues: determining the optimal solution, organizing a network-wide upgrade, and enforcing migration of tens of millions of addresses. This process could take nearly a decade to complete. Ten years—a very long cycle for the internet industry.

The Forgotten 1.7 Million BTC

Even more heartbreaking is an unavoidable black hole: a large number of bitcoins are stored in “dead addresses”—these addresses’ private keys have long been lost, and their owners cannot operate them at all. This accounts for about 1.7 million BTC. Even if Bitcoin successfully upgrades to post-quantum signature schemes, these 1.7 million bitcoins still face the risk of being plundered overnight by quantum attackers.

What does this mean? It means Bitcoin not only needs to upgrade in an orderly and timely manner but also must undertake an unprecedented action: the entire community and holders must collectively agree to permanently lock these 1.7 million forgotten bitcoins out of circulation. This has never happened in Bitcoin’s 13-year history.

Don’t Delay, Don’t Overestimate

Nic Carter’s conclusion is straightforward: don’t be complacent, don’t be overly optimistic. The Bitcoin community and developers need to act quickly, take the quantum threat seriously, rather than respond with apathy or wishful thinking. After all, the time left for preparation may be much tighter than we imagine.