Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin becoming invalid? Major institutions and influencers have differing opinions.

Question

【Crypto World】The four-year halving cycle pattern of Bitcoin has recently sparked quite a bit of controversy. Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Cathie Wood from ARK Invest have both stated that this theory may be outdated. Their logic is straightforward: with a large influx of ETFs, deep institutional participation, and a market ecosystem that has long since changed from four years ago. However, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity disagrees. His view is that the cycle still plays a role—recently, Bitcoin approached a high of 12.5 thousand USD, and within the historical cycle framework, its position is quite consistent. More importantly, he predicts a bear market correction may occur in 2026, with support levels falling between 65,000 and 75,000 USD. Institutional understanding of the market varies, but regardless, these perspectives are worth serious consideration by traders.

DiamondHands · Accepted Answer

Comments on Cutting Losses but Not Love:

To be honest, the institutions each have their own opinions, and no one can say for sure... Anyway, I am confident in the cycle theory, Timmer's logic is reliable.

Is the cycle invalid or still effective? Why do these two factions have to argue with each other?

The entry of ETFs has indeed changed a lot, but think about it, has the greed and fear of human nature really changed?

Buy the dip when it drops to 65,000-75,000 in 2026, I’ve noted this prediction.

The cycle theory won't die; this game is fundamentally a contest. New money at most changes the rhythm, but can't change the pattern.

Cathie Wood said it’s outdated, so let’s wait and see if time proves her wrong haha.

Listening to institutions is fine, but ultimately, it still depends on your own market intuition.

UncommonNPC · Answer

Four-year cycle invalid? Nonsense, the institutions are just arguing among themselves.

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Looking at 125,000, it indeed seems to fit the historical framework, but support at 65,000-75,000... depends on how Bitcoin will behave in 2026.

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Does ETF coming in change the rules? I think it's more like a change of players, the cycle itself hasn't changed.

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I never believe what Cathie Wood says is outdated; this woman keeps changing her stance every day.

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Rather than listening to big V influencers, it's better to look at the K-line trends yourself. History repeats but is never the same.

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Bear market correction in 2026? Should I be actively involved or just watch... I can't figure this out.

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It's normal for institutions to have different opinions. If they all had the same stance, that would be scary.

BridgeJumper · Answer

The institutions are acting, each saying their own thing... Timmer's support level of 6.5-75,000 sounds much more reliable, anyway, I have to prepare bullets in 2026

RooftopReserver · Answer

Coming back to predict a four-year cycle? It's the same old story, each institution says different things.

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I believe Timmer's view; $65,000-$75,000 is the real support.

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Can ETF inflows change the cycle? That's funny, the data will tell.

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2026 bear market correction... What should I do now?

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A bunch of influencers arguing, I just want to know if I can still buy the dip now.

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Cycle invalidation is a butt problem; I'm tired of Cathie Wood's theories.

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Damn, these institutions really know how to bluff, but I still prefer to look at the order book.