History is in front of us: when Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin tends to fall. The first three times all followed this pattern—declines exceeding 20%. The reason is quite straightforward: the yen carry trade collapses, and the funds that borrowed cheap yen to leverage and trade cryptocurrencies disperse in chaos.



But this time is different. Japan's central bank's aggressive 0.75% rate hike didn't cause Bitcoin to crash. Analysts point out three key factors: first, the market had already digested the bearish expectations; second, the Bank of Japan still talks about "accommodation"; third and most importantly—the US Bitcoin ETF, a large liquidity pool, absorbed all the selling pressure.

However, the most worth noting part is here. The "no decline" this time seems positive, but in reality, the underlying market logic is undergoing a huge shift. The entire crypto market is transitioning from an era driven by cheap yen, retail investors, and leveraged trading—an era of speculation—to a "allocation era" dominated by global macro strategies and institutional funds.

As the old arbitrage wave gradually recedes, a new question emerges: in a phase of shifting dynamics and high macro uncertainty, is relying solely on Bitcoin as a "safe harbor" enough? Or is there a need for a kind of "stable infrastructure" that can withstand macro volatility and support high-frequency daily value flows?

The role of stablecoins is being redefined. The era of institutionalization has arrived, and market volatility remains intense. Stability and efficient circulation are equally critical at this moment. A healthy crypto ecosystem requires not only Bitcoin as a value anchor but also stablecoins to support daily transactions and value exchange stability. This is not just an embellishment but a necessity for the ecosystem's integrity.
BTC0.46%
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 2
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
Ser_Liquidatedvip
· 12-22 15:29
Japan raised interest rates again, but this time BTC didn't fall? Wake up, the ETF is catching a falling knife. Institutional entry is different, the era of retail investors is indeed over. Stablecoins really need to be taken seriously, or else just wait to be played people for suckers. This shift in logic is a bit intense, we need to keep a close eye on it. In the past, we made money through arbitrage, now we have to look at the macro situation, the difficulty has doubled. The ballast is running out, we need stable infrastructure to support the market. --- No, no, this logic is a bit too idealistic, in reality institutions still dump. With so much ETF Lock-up Position, has liquidity really improved? It feels even more fragile instead. Stablecoins are important, but saying it so absolutely is a bit excessive. --- Simply put, the rules of the game are changing, the loser is always the retail investor. From yen arbitrage to institutional allocation, how many people have died in between? --- Wait a minute, is this supporting stablecoins? Goodness. --- The era of institutions has really arrived, but the real opportunities to make money have actually decreased.
View OriginalReply0
ConfusedWhalevip
· 12-20 16:51
Wait, is ETF really that powerful? Did it absorb all the selling pressure from yen arbitrage? Speaking of which, I also suffered heavy losses during the yen crash three years ago. Now that institutions are stepping in to buy, it feels... strange. Stablecoins really should become popular; we need a source of liquidity. From retail traders' pit positions to institutional allocations, it feels like the entire game has changed. The Bank of Japan's rhetoric is incredible—talks about easing while actually raising interest rates. This routine is really tiring. Bitcoin as a ballast still feels a bit虚, without stablecoins backing it, it's truly uncomfortable. If it doesn't drop this time, I actually find it more suspicious... Are institutions testing the bottom?
View OriginalReply0
  • Pin

Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)