#美国经济数据 The Fed's interest rate decision will take place early this Thursday, and the key point of this meeting is not the rate cut itself—an 84% probability has already locked in a 25bp adjustment—but rather the internal disagreements within the policy committee.

Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 opposed or expressed doubts about further easing, which is the first time since 2019. The dot plot is likely to reveal this divergence, especially regarding expectations for the policy direction in 2026. In addition, with the upcoming change in the Fed chair, the policy inclination of the new leadership will become a new pricing focus for the market.

From an on-chain perspective, this policy uncertainty is often accompanied by increased capital volatility. It is recommended to pay special attention to the rhythm changes of large withdrawals/deposits, especially the movements of institutional wallets in the 48 hours before and after the meeting. The wording choices in the Fed's press conference—especially the description of "further easing"—will directly affect the short-term risk appetite adjustments of capital.

Subsequent economic data will be the real turning point. Before the release of key data in March and June 2026, market expectations will fluctuate repeatedly.