Anticipating that the unfavourable information in the crypto market has run its course or that the positive information has peaked is fundamentally about cross-verifying four dimensions: price reactions, emotional extremes, capital behavior, and the pace of event realization, rather than relying on a single indicator. For specifics, please refer to the following practical methods:

1. Signal of Unfavourable Information being fully released

1. Price resilience + Unfavourable Information has landed and does not create new lows
When unfavourable information is released (such as interest rate hikes, regulatory policies, or large sell-offs), the price quickly dips but does not break through the previous key support level, or it briefly breaks below before quickly recovering, indicating that the selling pressure has been fully released.
For example: After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, BTC dipped to $84,418 without breaking the previous low point, and then rebounded, which is a typical signal of Unfavourable Information being fully absorbed.
2. Emotional extremes show marginal recovery
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to the range of 10-20 (extreme fear) and has persisted for 3-5 days, accompanied by the total liquidation amount across the network reaching a temporary peak (concentrated long liquidations). After that, the sentiment indicator begins to rise slightly and no longer sets new lows.
3. Capital inflow against the trend
During the period of Unfavourable Information, Bitcoin ETFs still maintained a daily net inflow of over $300 million, whale addresses increased their holdings, and the BTC balance on exchanges continued to decline (indicating a transfer of chips from retail investors to institutions), which shows that funds are bottom-fishing.

2. Signals for Judging that Unfavourable Information has been Fully Released

1. After the favourable information is implemented, the price surged and then fell back (sell the expectation, sell the fact)
When major favourable information (such as ETF approval or interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve) is released, the price quickly rises but fails to hold the new highs, instead showing a large volume bearish candle (with a surge in turnover rate at high levels), indicating that profit-taking by bulls far exceeds buying.
2. Overheated emotions + excessive leverage accumulation
The Fear and Greed Index has risen to the range of 80-90 (extreme greed), with the proportion of long positions in the entire network reaching a new high for this phase. This is accompanied by more than 70% of the liquidation amount in the past 24 hours coming from short liquidations, indicating that the market's consensus on bullish sentiment has reached its peak.
3. Margin capital outflow
After the positive news materialized, ETF fund inflows plummeted by more than 50% compared to the previous period, exchange BTC balances began to rise (chips are shifting from institutions to retail investors), and the strength of the spot buying decreased, indicating that the incremental funds have been exhausted.

3. Key Verification Principles

- Reject single indicators: It is necessary to satisfy signals from more than two dimensions simultaneously, such as price + sentiment + funds, to avoid misjudgment (for example, extreme fear in sentiment but continuous new lows in price does not indicate that Unfavourable Information has been fully released, but rather that the trend continues).
- Combined event cycle: The timeliness of short-term events (such as options expiration) is 1-3 days when signals are exhausted, while signals for medium to long-term events (such as regulatory bills) need to observe price trends for 1-2 weeks for confirmation.