Fundstrat analysts explain differentiated investment strategies: Why are they optimistic about BTC hitting new highs before the end of the year?

[Chain News] Analysts from the Fundstrat Foundation operate independently, adopting different research frameworks and investment cycle strategies. Recently, someone asked me why my views differ from Tom Lee's, and this is actually quite normal.

My research focuses on investment portfolios with a significant proportion of crypto assets (usually over 20%), adopting a relatively aggressive operational rhythm. Tom Lee's research mainly serves large asset management institutions and those investors who allocate only 1-5% of their funds in BTC and ETH. This conservative strategy emphasizes high discipline and a long-term perspective, aiming to achieve excess returns by capturing structural trends. My goal, however, is different - to help clients with high allocations of crypto assets to consistently outperform across various market cycles through active rebalancing.

Saying that I was relatively cautious in the first half of the year? That reflects a risk management mindset, not a completely bearish outlook. Although the current market pricing is nearly perfect, there are indeed hidden dangers—government shutdown risks, trade frictions, uncertainties in AI capital expenditures, and changes in the Federal Reserve's chairmanship, among others. Additionally, the high-yield bond spreads are tightening, and cross-asset volatility is at low levels; these cannot be ignored. Recently, the flow of funds has also been diverging.

Bitcoin is now in a “no man's land” in terms of valuation. On the positive side, the entry of major brokerages may boost ETF demand, and the long-term outlook remains optimistic. However, in the short term, there are several pressures to face: original holders may sell off, miners are facing difficulties, MSCI may remove MSTR, and fund redemptions, among others.

My core judgment is as follows: there may be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another adjustment in the first half of the year, which would create more attractive opportunities for the layout at the end of the year. If my judgment is wrong, I tend to wait for confirmation signals before taking action.

For those paying attention to this prediction, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new highs before the end of the year. This way, it could end the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and smaller bear market.